Counting The Votes
American politics can, at times, be cyclic in nature. One party has a defining characteristic and the other party is at the opposite end of the spectrum -- but over time the pendulum can swing, and the parties wind up reversed from their previous positions. Case in point: it wasn't that long ago that congressional Democrats were known for their fractious behavior with many different factions at loggerheads with each other, to such a point that large groups of them crossing the aisle and voting with the Republicans was a regular occurrence. Charmingly enough, it was referred to as Democrats' "cat-herding problem." Cats, as we all know, are impossible to herd, since they are all fierce individualists and resist any attempts to get them all headed in the same direction. Herding the Democratic cats was seen as a Herculean (and quite possibly impossible) task.
That was only a few decades ago, mind you. Nowadays, however, it is the Democrats who are known for sticking together, which is largely the result of having very strong leaders in both the House and the Senate who were adept at twisting arms and cajoling their members to stick together. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid demonstrated that Democrats weren't always a herd of cats, and could indeed present a unified face to the other party. These days, of course, it is the Republicans who have a cat-herding problem. The pendulum of politics has swung.
The current speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, heads into the new year not knowing if he is going to keep his leadership post or not. That's the most obvious example, but it is by no means the only one. Republicans have the thinnest majority imaginable, which means that when the speaker vote is called, Johnson will only be able to afford to lose a single vote from his caucus. If two members vote against him, he will not win the speakership back. The prospect of another drawn-out speaker battle has now even moved Donald Trump to weigh in, throwing the power of his endorsement behind Johnson. But one GOP member has already publicly stated he won't vote for Johnson, so all it will take is one more for his speakership to be in jeopardy.
It's going to get even worse, whether Johnson retains the gavel or not. Because almost immediately, the House GOP will temporarily lose two members (who have been nominated for positions in the incoming Trump administration), which will mean that Republicans will not be able to afford losing even a single member across the aisle in any partisan-line vote.
Trump is eager to see his agenda move in Congress, and will be pushing for two things right away: raising the debt ceiling, and passing massive tax breaks for the wealthy. His problem is going to be that these two are going to pull GOP members in opposite directions. Raising the debt limit is a big bugaboo for many Republicans, so either some Democrats are going to have to be convinced to go along with the idea or the hardliner Republicans are going to have to have their demands met. And what they'll demand is massive cuts to the federal budget. So they'll be working hard to give a tax bonanza to the wealthy while slashing government programs for everyone else -- which is going to be tough to sell to the public.
Meanwhile, over in the Senate, Trump's nominations will be getting hearings and (eventually) floor votes. Not all of them may survive this process. The Senate GOP margin is a little better -- they can afford to lose as many as three votes (which will leave a 50-50 tie that the incoming vice president can break). On some of the nominees, however, losing four GOP votes is not out of the question at all.
This could lead to a lot of frustration for Trump. He's already seen how congressional Republicans can show their independence, as a group of roughly three dozen of them voted against a "punt the ball once again" budget measure, the week before the holidays started. When there are only a handful of aisle-crossers, Trump trains the full rage of his MAGA followers on them, but that's a lot harder to do when there are so many of them. And one of their biggest sticking points was that Trump tried to hustle through a hike in the debt ceiling with absolutely no warning. Fiscal conservatives balked -- it's a point of honor among them that the debt ceiling should only be raised after forcing massive budget reductions on the Democrats. Since there were no budget reductions at all in the bill, they revolted against it.
So far, there have been few Republicans willing to publicly oppose Trump or their party. There aren't a whole lot of them out there doing cable television interviews putting forth their own viewpoint, to put this another way. They know that the smartest thing to do when opposing Trump is to keep your head down for as long as possible, so as not to incur his wrath. But eventually they have to actually vote.
So that's really the big question, heading into January and the incoming Congress. Will Republicans actually knuckle under to Trump on every vote, or are enough of them sufficiently independent to stymie Trump's more extreme moves? This will be immediately apparent in the speaker vote. If this descends into chaos once again, it could be an indication of the GOP cats being unherdable for the near future. If Trump whips them all into unity, then they'll soon face the problem of the debt ceiling, which could be more contentious (since it won't be personality-driven like the speaker vote, but much more ideological in nature). Over in the Senate, Trump has already had to back down on a few of his nominees, but several very problematic ones remain. Forcing him to back down on a few more of them might mean Trump won't be able to count on the unwavering loyalty he hopes for from the Republican Senate either.
For the last two years, House Republicans have certainly earned their unherdable-cats status. Now that they've taken over the Senate as well, things could become twice as chaotic. So far, this hasn't led many Republicans to publicly break with Trump in a big way, instead they have done so quietly, with their actual floor votes. Counting those votes is going to be the biggest headache Trump and the Republican leadership face, and it's going to start right after the new year dawns.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
These days, of course, it is the Republicans who have a cat-herding problem. The pendulum of politics has swung.
Herding cats. *laughs*
So they'll be working hard to give a tax bonanza to the wealthy while slashing government programs for everyone else -- which is going to be tough to sell to the public.
I am torn between wanting to sit back and watch the Republicans self-destruct without passing any of their proposed legislation - and (as per several liberal commentaries I've lately read) wanting the Republicans to pull it together, pass their reactionary, elitist, and working-class-destructive agenda, and so lose the support of many of their deluded working-class voters in time for the 2028 election.
I admit I'm not crazy about option #2, but it's an intriguing proposition: get this stuff out in the open, in operation, destroying lives and increasing public misery, and all to the credit of a Republican president and Congress. The trouble is, of course, that's a lot of public pain for everybody, not just Trump's base.
Well, all I can do is watch, per Chris's program, and hope the U.S. survives this administration in something like the condition it's in now.
On some of the nominees, however, losing four GOP votes is not out of the question at all.
This could lead to a lot of frustration for Trump.
Alas, "Poor Donald"... already showing the early onset symptoms of lame duckery.
Is it too soon to settle on a new name for the lame duck? Rhetorical question. One can obviously never be too prepared; so will it be:
* Lame Duck Donald?
* Lame Donald Duck?
* Lame Old McDonald, Nephew of Scrooge McDuck?
We're taking names; all ideas definitely welcome.
Poor Lame Duck Donald or Lame Donald Duck
Aaand…20 Republican Senators are standing for re-election in 2026. This is the mirror opposite of this year. The only Gerrymandering involves each state’s borders.
I hope Repugs shitcan the filibuster and pass their deeply unpopular legislation.
First some old business..
BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Victoria Troll comes back from her shame induced hiatus and virtually EVERY comment she made has been about me.. :D
Russ Troll's comments from the last couple months have been EXCLUSIVELY about me!! :D
They drag up internet stuff about me from OVER A QUARTER CENTURY ago and actually believe it has RELEVANCE in the here and now!! :D
These trolls are HYSTERICAL with their hate and bigotry and it's obvious to all that I am totally rent free in their heads.. :D
I feel sorry for those Weigantians Trump/America haters who are looking forward to the BLOCK feature..
What with the trolls making virtually ALL of their comments exclusively about yours truly, EVERY ONE is going to be able to partake... :D
0238
CW,
These days, of course, it is the Republicans who have a cat-herding problem. The pendulum of politics has swung.
Oh puulleeessee...
Is that the best you got?? :D
"The pendulum has swung... Woooo oooooooo" :eyeroll:
Yer still going to have to contend with a UNITED Republican Party that has a LOCK on ALL aspects of government and will be able to push thru an AMERICA First agenda that is soo despised by Trump/America hating Democrats.. :D
I get it. Ya'all are trying to put lipstick on this pig to make the fact that you Democrats got so completely and utterly shellacked in the 2024 election.. :D
I commend you for trying to save face so much, but com'on..
Where is the REALITY of this "reality based" forum?? :D
On another note, still waiting for word from you regarding my donation...
If you prefer to address it in email, that's fine as well..
Given the current issues with the Weigantian trolls, I can understand your reluctance to discuss this publicly...
0239
Michale
5
Victoria Troll comes back from her shame induced hiatus and virtually EVERY comment she made has been about me.. :D
And with that nugget, the board's Michael/Michale troll has proven beyond doubt that his raison d'être is his life spent trolling online and that ever-present neediness of his/hers to be noticed by somebody/anybody combined with that modus operandi of his/hers to just make shit up about anybody/everybody (especially himself/herself) in repeated attempts to prove somehow/some way that he/she has lived a life more important than others. *laughs*
Contrary to the invented bullshit of the board's ever-needy resident troll, my holidays were a lot more boring. In point of actual fact and reality, my older brother died suddenly, and I've inherited his estate (not in Texas) and all the travel and work that comes with that... including probate.
Anyway, Weigantians will be proud to know that the first thing I did upon arrival to his/my property was to walk out the front door quite a considerable distance to the very tall flagpole in front and remove the very large Trump flag and replace it with an American flag. You really can love your country without being a MAGAt, Muskrat, or Trump cock holster.
But poor Michael/Michale, Russ and I cannot factually make the claim that we didn't already know that those ginormous chunks of time of his/hers spent away from this board were very long periods of shame. In fact, I would wager we all here already knew that.
Russ Troll's comments from the last couple months have been EXCLUSIVELY about me!! :D
That is totally incorrect, but your ever-present neediness for attention is again duly noted.
They drag up internet stuff about me from OVER A QUARTER CENTURY ago and actually believe it has RELEVANCE in the here and now!! :D
First off, your abilities at math are only equaled by your inability at reading comprehension, I must inform you that 21 years is obviously not "OVER A QUARTER CENTURY ago."
Secondly, that's a very interesting use of the word "drag" there, missy, but not altogether surprising coming from a Michael who (quote): "is spelling his first name differently now to signify that he definitely likes his..." well, y'all can read.
Interesting how he/she is still spelling his/her name "differently" in the RELEVANCE of facts and reality.
These trolls are HYSTERICAL with their hate and bigotry and it's obvious to all that I am totally rent free in their heads.. :D
Hate requires passion, and Russ and I have none for you, but you always and still have our utmost pity. No one lives rent-free in either Russ or my head, and we feel quite certain it will not go unnoticed when the rent becomes due and payable.
Russ and I are not trolls, but we also are not altogether unsympathetic when we encounter a true troll in obvious constant total desperate need of attention and just making shit up about anyone/everyone (including himself/herself) in order to fill that ever-present neediness for attention that exudes from his/her every word (those words he/she isn't plagiarizing, of course).
So Michael/Michale: Russ and I recognize the continuance of your life-long modus operandi of the trolling others and just making shit up about them in your constant need of attention, and Russ and I will sometimes fill that neediness of yours to be noticed, but only when we're choosing not to totally ignore you and scroll directly through your trollshit mountain of misinformation and right-wing echo chamber invented propaganda and outright lies wherein you've obviously and demonstrably mainlined the Orange Kool-Aid. In the interest of full disclosure: Russ and I are not liars so the attention you crave will come in the form of facts.
I feel sorry for those Weigantians Trump/America haters who are looking forward to the BLOCK feature..
Translation: Michael/Michale Troll is obsessed with his/her being totally ignored by others. He/has not failed to notice that the most popular feature being requested by those who actually want to discuss political commentary in the comments section of Chris's blog (versus wading through the Michale trollshit mountain of entirely plagiarized articles and bullshit) is the BLOCK feature.
What with the trolls making virtually ALL of their comments exclusively about yours truly, EVERY ONE is going to be able to partake... :D
Don't bet on it. That most-requested and coveted block feature has the potential to be the end of your prolific plagiarism along with your obvious neediness for praise and attention and your total pathetic existence.
On another note, still waiting for word from you regarding my donation...
Translation: Michale has neediness to be noticed and requires special attention for making a simple dang donation.
If you prefer to address it in email, that's fine as well..
Given the current issues with the Weigantian trolls, I can understand your reluctance to discuss this publicly...
You don't need permission to make a damn donation. Stop "toying" around and make it. If you want to make a larger donation than the paltry chump change you challenged everyone to make, good God, stop with the absolute prattling bullshit and JUST DO IT.
[7] Kick
My condolences on the loss of your older brother. I, too, lost a sibling suddenly and still do not approve of it.
Very much appreciated and my condolences to you also. Life can throw us curve balls sometimes, and I wish you the very best.
Please tell me you did not lose your twin.
^^^ EDIT 10 ^^^
MyVoice
9
My condolences on the loss of your older brother. I, too, lost a sibling suddenly and still do not approve of it.
Very much appreciated and my condolences to you also. Life can throw us curve balls sometimes, and I wish you the very best.
Please tell me you did not lose your twin.
Kick,
I did not lose my twin. He is well aware he doesn't have my permission to leave.
MyVoice
12
Glad to hear that. Keep him in line. ;)