Congress Gets Back To Work
Today was a pretty boring day in Washington -- which is as it should be. Congress met and certified the Electoral College votes in the ceremonial finish to last year's presidential election. There were no riots, no protests, and no insurrection attempt by a brigade of sore losers. The Capitol remained peaceful throughout. In fact, the whole thing was so boring that it's really not even worth writing a whole column about it.
Instead, let's focus on what the new Congress has on its plate. With two weeks to go before Donald Trump is sworn into office again, Republicans are already eager to get his second term rolling. The Senate will begin hearings on Trump's cabinet appointees, most of which will be pretty dull and perfunctory -- but a handful of them could get quite lively indeed. Especially considering the fact that Democrats will get to question each of them publicly about anything under the sun. They'll do so to score political points, but also in an effort to convince a few worried Republicans of the candidates' unfitness for office. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so it will take four of them rejecting any nominee to tank their chances. But most of them will wind up sailing through the process, even if one or two do get derailed.
But the bigger job Congress will have will be attempting to implement Trump's agenda. They plan to get as much passed as possible as soon as possible, because incoming presidents only really get their first year to get things done before the next election cycle (the midterms) becomes a huge factor in how everyone votes. So they're going to shoot for the moon now, in the hopes of getting as much of Trump's agenda onto his desk early in his term.
There's already a clock ticking on some of it, since this year's federal budget was only extended to the middle of March. So something's got to pass before then, or the government shuts down.
Right now, the Republicans are sparring over whether to shoot for one gigantic bill or two slightly-less-gigantic bills. Their initial goal is to approve money for the border and immigration enforcement (to give Trump a free hand to begin his mass deportation effort). But they've got the rest of the budget to squabble over as well, so it remains to be seen what other Trump agenda items will make it into the final product.
The other big item on their "to do" list is to rewrite the tax code. All of the tax cuts Trump managed to pass in his first term will expire this year, so Congress has to act or everyone's taxes will go up. This is where the question of doing one huge bill versus two comes into play, since putting together a budget for the rest of this year will be contentious enough on its own, even before they begin the huge battle over what to do about taxes.
All of this -- whether one bill or two -- will happen under "budget reconciliation" rules, which means Republicans won't have to worry about a filibuster in the Senate and can pass the bills without having to get any Democratic votes. In theory, that is.
There are two big hurdles they'll have to get over in order to pass their strictly partisan bills. The first is the Senate parliamentarian, who will be in charge of ruling what is allowable in any budget reconciliation bill. However, if the Republicans really want to, they can hold a vote and overrule any of the parliamentarian's decisions. This rarely happens, but if Trump and his MAGA chorus are screaming for them to do it, it is possible. The leader of the Senate could even fire the parliamentarian, although this is equally rare.
The real stumbling block the Republicans face is themselves. One is reminded of Pogo Possum's immortal "We have met the enemy and he is us" quip here, in fact. Republicans have only the slimmest majorities in both houses. For the next few months (until special elections can be held), the Republicans in the House of Representatives will not be able to lose a single vote in order to muster a purely partisan majority. This means the power to drag everything to a halt will rest with each and every one of them. And we all know there are more than a few publicity-hounds in the House GOP, so the real question of what Congress will be able to do will boil down to what Speaker Mike Johnson can achieve unanimity on.
Johnson, as we've seen in the previous Congress, will have plenty of factions to appease. The hardliners in his caucus have been kept in check by the simple fact that with a Democratic Senate and president, none of what they wanted to do was ever going to become reality. This restriction will soon be gone, however, which will likely lead to the hardliners demanding everything that has been stymied up until now. But there are also a few fiscal conservatives left in the party and even a few socially moderate members, all of whom may balk if things get too extreme.
Any GOP House member could essentially become the Republican version of Joe Manchin. They could singlehandedly halt the process and demand picky rewrites on their own pet issues. They could make a stand against one or more of the agenda items the rest of their party is demanding. And the longer they hold out, the more their face will appear on cable news shows -- which (for Manchin) was often the whole point of the exercise. And any one of them could do this -- in fact, more than one of them could even decide to get in on the action. They'll have Trump and the MAGA chorus screaming at them, but they'll also get a ton of media exposure. With Johnson not able to lose even a single vote, this could considerably gum up the works.
But the biggest sticking point is likely to be the ocean of red ink that will issue forth from all of these plans. The tax cuts, in particular, are going to balloon the deficit enormously -- especially if the Republicans try to make good on all of Trump's wild campaign promises. But even without the tax component, the other agenda items are all going to cost money as well, and Republicans will be hard-pressed to find budget items to cut -- if they even bother trying to pay for it all. They could decide to just pretend that the math doesn't exist and claim that they won't be raising the deficit a bit (all evidence to the contrary) with their own "magical thinking" math. But it remains to be seen whether the fiscal conservatives will go along with it or not.
It seems more likely that the Republicans will move forward with two separate bills. This would allow them to pass the easier of the two (dealing with the border and immigration and perhaps energy policy) as fast as possible, to put something on Trump's desk for him to sign and brag about. If they try to wrap the tax code rewrite into it, the whole process might be severely delayed by many months (since any tax law rewrite spawns all kinds of arcane political battles).
Donald Trump plans to act on his own when he gets into office (there's a rather long list of things he promised "on Day One" in fact), but he's going to need Congress to act on many of his big agenda items. How long the first big bill takes to get on his desk (and what makes it in and what gets cut) is going to be the first test of whether Republicans can actually govern or not. While the media attention is largely going to be on the Senate confirmation hearings for the next few weeks, the real test is going to be what the Republican House can manage to pass.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Thanks for the preview, Chris. I wonder if you could comment on what Trump himself thinks Johnson and the Congress ought to do, relative to the "two bills vs. one bill" debate.
As we saw in the budget extension and Speaker election episodes, Trump (and Musk) showed no hesitation in inserting their opinions, wishes, commands, or threats into the internal business of the Federal legislature.
Surely he's going to do something similar in this area of strategic concern for his adminstration: how to pass a 'really big' law as soon as possible? And will his interference be helpful or not? As you note above, several of the GOP trouble-makers or hold-outs may actually decide they are immune to this president's threats and power - Manchin being the example, again.
And what do the Democrats want to do about all this? Obstruct as the loyal opposition, or actually try to find compromise positions that would let some of them vote for a Republican bill and take the pressure off of Johnson in his sweaty attempts to keep EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATIVE on board the good ship Trump Administration?
whatever big cake wants, it will get.
Donald Trump plans to act on his own when he gets into office (there's a rather long list of things he promised "on Day One" in fact), but he's going to need Congress to act on many of his big agenda items.
And remember also, America, that during his debate with Kamala Harris, Donald Trump said if he was reelected he would end the war in Ukraine before his inauguration. He explained he will do this before taking office because he is respected by Ukraine and Russia's leaders.
Tick tock. Time's a wastin'.
The first promise to be broken by Lame Donald Duck is nigh. *laughs*
Will the inaction due to incompetence, infighting and unconstitutionality lead to more or less harm that the actions that actually take place?
Mezzo
4
The only inaction that can hurt the country would be to allow a government shutdown. Otherwise no news is good news out of this Congress, methinks.
I see everyone is still feasting on sour grapes..
So much Trump/America hate in one room..
REAL Americans... PATRIOTIC Americans would hope that President ELECT Trump would do well..
But not Weigantians.. They would rather see America ground into the dirt, JUST so they can blame President Trump.. Sad...
Well, let's see what's happening in the realm of OBJECTIVE Reality... :D
Seems Mark Zuckerberg has admitted that Basement Biden censored TOO much speech on Facebook....
The Zuck is tossing the Left Wing Propaganda "Fact" checkers out on their asses!! :D
Zuck now realizes that President Trump is what's best for America....
What a great day for America....
What else is new..
Judge Cannon has slapped down Jack Smith... AGAIN... Seems like Smith wanted to release his propaganda report and try to negatively impact President Trump's inauguration...
Judge Cannon said "Not on my watch, bitch!!"... Or words to that effect.. :D
Poor poors Smith.. He's a luser from the git go and just can't spew his Trump/America hating BS.. :D Love it...
President ELECT Trump's election is ALREADY having consequences for Canada... Trudeau tried to take on President ELECT Trump and found President ELECT Trump to be invincible..
So Trudeau did what ALL hysterical Left Wingers do.. He ran away... :D
So, Canada is moving to the Right.. Mexico caved in to President ELECT Trump's tariff threats and said, "Whatever we can do for you President Trump, Mexico will do!!" .... or words to that effect..
President ELECT Trump is STILL winning!!! :D
Speaking of WINNING, Speaker Johnson won re-election on the FIRST vote!!!
After President ELECT Trump read the riot act to GOP'ers, Johnson sailed thru the election.. :D
And Democrats LOSE again!!! :D
What a GREAT time for America, eh!? :D
And, of course, the illegal and immoral lawfare persecutions still continue against President ELECT Trump..
:eyeroll:
I think Merchan is desperate to stain the incoming president with the label convicted felon. And understand, under the law, Trump is not officially convicted of anything until he's formally sentenced, even though many in the media, of course, began immediately and incorrectly calling him a convicted felon when the jury verdict came in.
That was the whole goal of indicting Trump and putting him on trial. Democrats assumed their politically driven lawfare campaign would destroy him. Instead, you know, it had the opposite effect. Voters saw it for what it was: a corrupt weaponization of the law, and it backfired spectacularly.
Judge Jeanine: Juan Merchan is an anti-Trump judgeVideo
Many Americans recognize this was a sham trial, a preordained outcome. It drove a lot of them to Donald Trump and he won. And it's one of the reasons why these George Soros-funded progressive district attorneys have ruined major cities in blue states.
Alvin Bragg is a prime example. If you're Trump, a misdemeanor business records violation somehow becomes a phantom felony. And in the end, nobody actually knew what he was convicted of. And it wasn't a unanimous jury verdict. The best we can tell, nobody really knows. A bedrock violation.
Bragg goes after, you know, Good Samaritans like Daniel Penny or a bodega worker who dared to defend himself when he was attacked. And he goes after a politician for purely political reasons. This is what Alvin Bragg has brought to New York City.
-Gregg Jarrett
Ya'all DO realize that all of the "crimes" against President Trump are ALL misdemeanors, right??
That to be considered felonies, there has to be ANOTHER crime involved..
Yet, NONE of you can point to that other crime... Hell, Bragg himself doesn't even know what that other crime was...
Is there ANYONE here who actually believes that this persecution will ACTUALLY survive appeal???
Anyone???
Yea, that's what I thought.. Because ONLY a brain dead retarded moron would believe that this lawfare persecution was anything besides election interference..
And Democrats are sooo incompetent that they couldn't even do THAT right.. Moron Democrats actually HELPED President Trump win the election!!
How utterly stoopid do Democrats feel right now!! :D