Republicans in Congress are running out of time. The federal government's budget turns into a pumpkin in mid-March, so if a new budget bill isn't passed by then, the government will shut down. And while President Elon Musk's chainsaw approach to slashing spending and personnel is getting most of the attention, what Congress does is likely to have a much deeper impact. This budget battle will also provide an opportunity for Democrats to make the case that Republican "populism" was never more than a mirage (or a lie) to begin with.

Republicans plan to do a number of different things with their budget, which is already causing them problems within their own caucus. The tax cuts that were passed during Donald Trump's first term are expiring this year, so extending them has to happen or else people's taxes are going to go up next year. Then there are the things Trump promised out on the campaign trail -- no more income taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security payments. All of this is going to have an enormous price tag, so Republicans are looking to slash money from other parts of the budget as well. And getting them all to agree on one plan or another is going to be tough to do, since some Republicans have different agendas (especially in the House).

The first point of contention is between the houses of Congress. The Senate has chosen to try a two-bill approach: pass one bill to avoid a government shutdown with a few goodies thrown in to keep Trump happy (more funds for border security, for instance), and then pass everything else (all the tax code changes) in a second bill, later on. The House is trying to cram everything into what Trump has taken to calling "one big, beautiful bill." As things stand, the Senate has passed their first bill already. The House may try to hold a vote on their big bill as soon as tonight.

Then again, they might not hold a vote tonight, since Speaker Mike Johnson so far hasn't rounded up enough votes to pass it. Different factions want different things, and Johnson only has a one-vote margin (he can lose one Republican vote and still pass a bill, but not two).

The big problem is that what Republicans are trying to do is going to add an enormous amount of money to the deficit and national debt. As usual, Republicans sanctimoniously talk about fiscal discipline only when it is Democrats who want to spend money. When they spend money, the concept of fiscal discipline goes straight out the window.

The biggest driver of this new deficit spending will be extending the tax cuts. That alone is going to cost anywhere from $3.9 to $4.8 trillion over the next 10 years (all figures are from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget). Removing taxes from overtime pay will cost up to $3 trillion more. Making Social Security tax-free would add up to $1.5 trillion more. The entire package of tax changes will cost anywhere from $5 trillion up to a high of $11.25 trillion.

To offset some of this ocean of red ink, Republicans are going to try to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget. But that's easier said than done. Trump has previously promised not to touch Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid, which add up to a huge percentage of all federal spending right there. And I can't see Republicans in Congress making major cuts to the Pentagon, which puts even more of the total budget off-limits. Republicans' target of making $2 trillion in cuts may not even be possible with so much of the budget off-limits. So they're already tossing one Trump promise overboard, and will be looking for $880 billion in cuts from Medicaid and/or Medicare (to be decided later -- these bills are only the first step in the process).

This is all causing consternation in the GOP caucus. Some members think $2 trillion in cuts isn't enough, and are pushing to cut even deeper. Other members (who fear for their chances of getting re-elected) are pushing back on slashing Medicaid funding, since they know their own constituents are going to get hit hard by this. As Steve Bannon even remarked on one of his recent shows: "You've got to be careful, because a lot of MAGAs are on Medicaid." In fact, over 70 million people are covered by Medicaid.

The good news in all of this is that Democrats are getting energized by this fight. It's a pretty easy fight for them to win, too. The Trump tax cuts were the most unpopular in modern history, since the lion's share of the cuts went to the ultra-wealthy. And cutting Medicaid to pay for more of them is going to be incredibly unpopular. A recent poll showed that 81 percent of registered voters opposed cuts to Medicaid and Medicare, including 76 percent of Republicans. Democrats are already circulating talking points accusing Republicans of "betray[ing] the middle class by cutting Medicaid while giving huge tax breaks to billionaire donors."

That's a pretty easy case to make, and it is already a proven winner. Democrats capitalized on Republicans' attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act eight years ago. They used the issue effectively on the campaign trail, and regained control of the House as a result. The case will be even easier to make this time around, because Democrats can couple it with what Republicans want to do with the money instead -- put it in people like Elon Musk's pockets.

Trump may try to double-talk his way out of his promises on Medicaid and Medicare by brushing off any large cuts as merely "waste, fraud, and abuse," but that's not going to help much if millions of people lose their healthcare. And of those millions, a large percentage are going to be voters in red states. This is pretty easy for Democrats to point out: "Republicans can't be trusted to govern -- the first chance they get, they'll rip away Medicaid from millions just to give their billionaire buddies a bigger tax cut!" Elon Musk is already pretty unpopular, and the concept that you have to give up your Medicaid so he can get richer is not going to be an easy one for Republicans to justify out on the campaign trail.

Some Republicans actually already realize this, which is why Mike Johnson might not be able to corral enough votes to pass his bill. Republicans in swing districts know what the campaign ads against them will say, if they vote for this. If Johnson doesn't pass his bill, then he will likely have to eventually pass the Senate version, which kicks the can down the road until later in the year. Either that, or he'll have a government shutdown on his watch.

Johnson can only lose one vote from his caucus. Trump is reportedly making phone calls, trying to strongarm everyone into voting for the bill, but it remains to be seen if he even has enough leverage to do so. The first test will come shortly, as we see whether the House even holds a vote tonight or not. If they fail to do so, it means there are enough Republicans who are a solid "no" vote to tank the bill. And they've got less than three weeks before the government shutdown deadline arrives.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant