Trump Recession Ahead?
Is America headed for a "Trump recession" already? Economists are starting to get worried. So are consumers. And the stock market has been in a deep dive ever since the tariff threat became real this week. So the possibility now exists -- we could be headed for an economic trainwreck. And if it happens, there will be a big difference from normal business-cycle recessions, because this time the reason why it happened will be pretty obvious to everyone.
Tomorrow, the official jobs/unemployment numbers will be released for February. This is one economic indicator the White House will likely be able to explain away (if the numbers are bad), since they'll treat it as good news: "Look how many people Elon Musk is getting rid of!" They'll call it a one-time blip, and no cause for alarm at all. But a little later in the month the official inflation figures will be released as well, and if they continue the upward trend which may have started in January then the fears of a Trump recession will start to grow in a big way.
The worry already exists, as the Washington Post pointed out today:
Americans are growing fearful of a recession. It's not here yet, but President Donald Trump is steering the country toward a downturn with his tariffs and cuts to spending and the federal workforce -- for no logical reason.
Trump has raised tariffs to their highest levels since the 1940s. The scale and scope of his levies on imports from China, Mexico and Canada are beyond anything he imposed in his first term. And he has only just begun. By Thursday, he granted a one-month pause on tariffs on most Mexican and Canadian imports, but he is threatening "reciprocal tariffs" on almost all imports starting on April 2. Wall Street banks have in turn hiked their probabilities for a 2025 recession. Even economist Ed Yardeni, one of the most optimistic forecasters, said in a note that he is "raising the odds of a tariff-induced recession from 20 percent to 35 percent."
Almost every economist I talk with uses words such as "uncertain," "jitters" and "shaky" to describe the situation. Trump's whipsaw actions have put businesses and consumers on edge, and they might pull back on hiring and spending. This could lead to a downward spiral: government cutbacks triggering layoffs in the private sector and spending cuts in health care, education and nonprofit services, which necessitate reductions at restaurants, stores and so on.
The article then goes on to list worrisome trends that are already happening, such as consumer confidence heading sharply downward, consumer spending tanking in January, predictions of the G.D.P. contracting this quarter (negative growth, in other words), stock market declines, bond markets pointing to slow growth, retail stores seeing declining sales, "layoff anxiety" rates heading sharply upwards (hitting a 10-year highpoint) as hiring slows down, and more.
So far, the Trump administration doesn't seem to care much. The secretary of Agriculture tells egg consumers: "let them raise chickens," and today the Treasury secretary was just as dismissive, stating that: "Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream," and: "We could get a one-time price adjustment" due to the tariffs. In other words, consumers are going to pay more, and they don't really care one whit.
This is all before the Republicans in Congress put together a budget which slashes programs that help poor and working-class Americans (food stamps, Medicaid, etc.). Which will exacerbate the problem, obviously.
None of this is set in stone, of course. Economics is little better than voodoo at predicting the future. Remember the big Biden recession? It didn't actually happen, but for almost a full year it was a featured story on the news: "Recession fears grow!" Economists were all very gloomy in their predictions, but the downturn simply didn't happen, in the end. This could turn out to be true this time around too.
But there's a simple truth at the heart of what is going on now -- one that Trump and his team don't seem to fully understand (or care about, if they do). This truth is that business hates chaos. Wall Street and multinational corporations fear chaos, because anything could happen. And they're much more concerned with making business plans for the future, which they would much prefer to be a lot more predictable and a lot less chaotic.
Right now, nobody has any idea what will happen with Trump's tariffs. Is he serious? Will they go into effect, or are they just a threat to use to intimidate and humiliate foreign countries' leaders? Can Trump be talked out of them for certain industries (the answer to that one certainly seems to be "Yes" today)? What happens when other countries impose tariffs on American farm produce -- will they also lift them willy-nilly, as Trump is doing? Or will they just stay in place until Trump ends all the tariff threats? Nobody knows the answer to any of this, which injects an enormous degree of uncertainty into the future economic picture. Which, again, businesses hate. Not to mention average consumers who wind up paying more for everything.
If a recession does happen, Trump is going to try to pin it all on Joe Biden -- that much is certain. But that is simply not going to fly. If Trump hadn't done much of anything and a recession developed, then perhaps he could get away with it. But that's already not true. Trump is tinkering with all sorts of things that affect the economy, and so far all the moves he has made could wind up actually causing a recession. Consumers who see Trump flailing around with tariffs and firing tons of people for no reason are simply not going to buy: "it's all Biden's fault." Because it'll be pretty obvious who is at fault, and his name is not "Joe Biden."
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Thanks for the reminder of the "Biden recession" that never came - giving us a little perspective on how the media covers economic forecasting.
But I am more curious about who exactly you are talking about when you say that "consumers" are not going to buy a Trump claim that "it's all Biden's fault" if a recession does in fact kick in this summer.
All "consumers"? Or only those "consumers" who are not also "Trump's base"? Because the "consumers" who ARE also "Trump's base" are arguably immune to any practical evidence that the Great Leader can ever do anything wrong. Why would a recession be different from all the other indicators since 2017 that this Republican administration, both v.1 and v.2, is incompetent if not willfully opposed to the interests of its voters?
So let's speculate on this upcoming recession - if it happens - and its effect on this president's polling and popularity. Just how far down could his ratings fall from where they are, when the only "consumers" that I can think of whose minds would be changed by a Trump recession are that vanishing group in the middle, who voted for him because they mistrusted Harris and the Democrats' lefty rhetoric, but who are not die-hard Trumpists at all. What, maybe 10% of the electorate? 15%? Who knows? So his approval polling goes from ca. 48% now to maybe 35% by this fall. Is that going to change his policies or his continuing drive to do whatever keeps that 35% in a state of perpetual adoration?
Once again Trump America haters hoping for bad things to happen to America and Americans.
Jesus people get over your hate
thinking something is likely isn't the same as wishing it into existence.
You mean like saying I can't wait until the next pandemic you mean like that???
It's perfectly clear to anyone NOT full of TRUMP/America Hate that yes. Democrats ARE hoping for bad things to happen...
because nobody here has ever engaged in sarcasm.
politicians (of whichever party) may well cynically hope for disasters to occur that give them a better chance of being elected. some politicians might even explicitly tank legislation that would help solve the problem, just to help them get elected. normal people don't do that. CW doesn't do that.
intentionally reading sarcasm as if it were sincere, or prediction as if it were desire, is just a tit for tat insult. i'd prefer a more civil tone from everybody, but each of us has to decide for ourselves how we're going to treat others, without the excuse of how they treat us.
JL
We are entering a period of deep stupidity...
Removing Enola Gay photos because "gay" is "DEI". Dumbasses....
Is this what a real demented president looks like? Tariffs on, tariffs delayed, tariffs on but delayed for specific products, all tariffs delayed. Tariffs delayed for some countries but not others. It's like they have absolutely no idea what they are doing. In the mean time, the rest of the world has lost patience and are putting in place their own tariffs, boycotting American goods and making side deals all over the place. We could not put a single tariff on any country but still have a recession just from the indecision. Biden handed Trump the strongest recovering economy in the G7 and Trump is going to fuck it up speed run style. Deep, deep stupidity...
JL
because nobody here has ever engaged in sarcasm.
How exactly was that "sarcasm"??
JMCT hates PRESIDENT Trump and hates RFK.. JMCT wants "mass deaths" of Americans so he can blame PRESIDENT Trump and RFK. JMCT is EXCITED about that and "can't wait for the next pandemic"...
It's like saying "PRESIDENT Trump is Hitler and is going to kill 6 million jews!!!"
Oh wait... Brain dead woke progressive Democrats have said THAT in earnest as well!!
Brain dead woke progressive Democrats are CONSTANTLY wanting bad things to happen to America and Americans JUST so they can blame PRESIDENT Trump...
Once or twice could be written off as "sarcasm" or irony..
EVERY DAY since 5 Nov 24 is no longer innocent sarcasm.. EVERY DAY since 5 Nov 24 is wishful thinking... :eyeroll:
Actually EVERY DAY since Jun of 2015 is not innocent "sarcasm". EVERY DAY since Jun of 2015 indicates a deep seated DESIRE to actually have these things happen..
The fact that Genocide Guy hasn't explained his comment as sarcasm PROVES that he is actually excited about the next pandemic and is looking forward to "mass deaths" of Americans.
intentionally reading sarcasm as if it were sincere, or prediction as if it were desire, is just a tit for tat insult.
You mean, like ya'all have been doing to PRESIDENT Trump since Jun of 2015???
You mean like that???
i'd prefer a more civil tone from everybody, but each of us has to decide for ourselves how we're going to treat others, without the excuse of how they treat us.
It's funny... We only see these accurate pearls of wisdom when you and I are discussing things.. :D
"I find that really funny...… But ya'all ain't laughin'..."
-Will Smith, MEN IN BLACK
:D
We got a lot to cover today, so let's get to it.. :D This little gem comes from CNN...
And the MOST CRINGIEST political ad goes to:
BRAIN DEAD WOKE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS!!!!
The Cringe-Worthy Antics of Brain Dead Woke Progressive Democrats
In a desperate attempt to connect with young voters, brain dead woke progressive Democrats have once again showcased their utter lack of self-awareness with a cringe-inducing TikTok video. The "Choose Your Fighter" parody, featuring Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her cohorts, is a perfect example of how far removed they are from reality. As they jumped around in fighting stances, attempting to portray themselves as video game characters, one can’t help but wonder: who thought this was a good idea?
The backlash was swift and merciless. Patriotic Americans on social media were quick to mock the brain dead Democrats, with one user quipping, "Democrats Not Be Cringe Challenge: Level: Impossible."
It’s as if the party is actively trying to implode itself, showcasing their inability to engage with the electorate in a meaningful way. Fox News contributor Joe Concha aptly pointed out that "there are just some people who don’t have anyone in their lives willing to tell them to stop."
Even more telling was the timing of this ridiculous stunt. Just days after refusing to stand and applaud for a child with cancer during PRESIDENT Trump’s address to Congress, the Democrats chose to release this absurd video. GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene hit the nail on the head when she remarked, "Democrats have sunk so low that I’m actually starting to feel sorry for them. Pitiful."
Ya'all just HAVE to know how bad brain dead Democrats are when they get sympathy and pity from MTG!!
The woke progressive Democrats’ antics are not just embarrassing; they are a clear indication of their disconnect from the American people. As former PRESIDENT Trump campaign advisor Tim Murtaugh asked, "Who is advising the Democrats?"
The answer is simple: a group of brain dead woke progressives who seem to believe that viral TikTok videos can replace substantive policy discussions.
In a political landscape where the GOP has a complete lock on all facets of government, the brain dead woke progressive Democrats’ latest stunt only reinforces the notion that they are out of touch and incapable of mounting a serious challenge.
As communications strategist Erica Knight noted, "Anyone that has any doubt that the GOP can keep the house in 2026 should rest assured."
The brain dead woke progressive Democrats’ cringe-worthy antics are not just a laughing matter; they are a warning sign of a Party in SERIOUS denial and a Party in SERIOUSLY ACCELERATING decline.
OK, things are really getting bad for brain dead Democrats..
Democrats lost Musk...
Democrats lost Zuckerburg…
Democrats lost Bezos...
Democrats are losing WaPo…
AND NOW Democrats are losing.... GAVIN NEWSOME!!!????
This perfect piece comes from Democrat Water Carrier POLITICO..
The political landscape for Democrats has reached a new low, evidenced by the shocking shift of California Governor Gavin Newsom, a once staunch advocate for LGBTQ+ rights, breaking ranks with his party on the contentious issue of transgender athletes in sports. In a recent podcast with conservative figure Charlie Kirk, Newsom stated, “I think it’s an issue of fairness... it’s deeply unfair.” This statement is not just a minor deviation; it signals a significant ideological rift within the Democratic Party, showcasing their struggle to maintain a coherent stance on critical issues.
Newsom’s comments reflect a growing concern among Democrats that they are losing ground on key social issues. He candidly admitted, “We’re getting crushed on it. Crushed. Crushed.” This admission is a stark reminder of how out of touch the brain dead woke progressive Democrats have become with mainstream American sentiments. By aligning himself with conservative viewpoints, Newsom is not only distancing himself from the party’s base but also positioning himself as a potential candidate for the 2028 presidential race, indicating a strategic pivot that could resonate with a broader electorate.
The irony is palpable: a governor who once defied state law to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples is now echoing Republican concerns about fairness in sports. This shift is emblematic of the Democrats’ broader identity crisis, as they grapple with the implications of their progressive policies. Newsom’s willingness to engage with conservative figures like Kirk and his critique of Vice President Kamala Harris’ stance on gender transition-related medical care for detained immigrants further illustrate the party’s internal fractures.
As Newsom navigates this treacherous political terrain, it’s clear that the Democrats are at risk of losing not just their grip on power but also their identity. The fact that a prominent Democratic figure feels compelled to align with Republican rhetoric underscores the urgency for the party to reassess its strategies. If they continue down this path of ideological confusion, they may find themselves not only losing Newsom but also alienating a significant portion of the electorate. The Democrats must confront the reality that their current approach is failing, or they risk becoming irrelevant in the ever-evolving political landscape
"A sad cavalcade of self owns and unhinged petulance. It only makes Trump look more presidential and restrained. We’re becoming the metaphorical car alarms that nobody pays attention to—and it may not be the winning message."
-Democrat John Fetterman describing today's Democrat Party
How many times must YOUR OWN people tell ya'all before ya'all accept the facts and the objective reality??
Trump/America hate and PTDS is NOT a viable political agenda..
The FACTS overwhelming PROVE this beyond ANY POSSIBLE doubt.
And yet, ya'all STILL persist...
You people are the seeds of ya'all's own destruction and yer too blinded by hate, bigotry and intolerance to see the objective reality.
BashiBazouk
6
Removing Enola Gay photos because "gay" is "DEI". Dumbasses....
OMG! The pilot named his famous plane after his mother, and they're proposing to censor the photo as well as many others where the word appears.
This is so beyond stupid.