GOP Worried About The House
House Republicans seem to be getting worried. Their historically-thin majority isn't in jeopardy quite yet, but the political trends aren't exactly going in their direction. Which led to a surprise announcement from the White House that the nomination of Representative Elise Stefanik to be the ambassador to the United Nations was being pulled. Stefanik had already delayed going through the Senate confirmation process, since her vote was needed on budget bills. But now she won't be confirmed at all, as Republicans worry about holding on to their majority.
As things stand, right now Republicans hold 218 House seats to Democrats' 213. This is four seats shy of a full House, you will note. Two seats are empty because of the resignation of Matt Gaetz and the elevation of Michael Waltz to be national security advisor. Both of these seats will have a special election next week. The other two seats are empty because of the deaths of two Democrats, with special elections to take place later.
The two seats up for grabs next week are in red districts in Florida. Normally, this wouldn't be a problem for Republicans, but one of these races might actually turn out to be close. In a district that favored Donald Trump by 30 points, the Democratic candidate has raised a huge pile of money and the polling shows a "shockingly tight, single-digit race." This would be a huge upset, if the Democrat manages to win, obviously.
Stefanik's district is in New York, which means the Democratic governor would likely schedule a special election as far out as legally possible (so the seat would remain empty for as long as possible). Stefanik's district went for Trump by 21 points, but even that margin is not enough to quell fears in the GOP that they could lose this seat. If the Democrats, as expected, hold onto the two open seats on their side of the aisle, then flipping two other seats would leave Republicans with the tightest margin possible -- 218 to 217.
Democrats have been having some recent rather spectacular successes in previously-red districts at the state legislative level. They just won a state senate seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by Republicans for decades -- in a district Trump won by 15 points last November. They also picked up a state legislative seat in Iowa in January that Trump won by 21 points. Overall, in special elections this year Democrats have beaten their 2024 election numbers by an average of more than 10 points. If Democrats were to win in that Florida race next week, it would represent a new high point (they haven't over-performed by 30 points in any other election so far).
Special elections aren't always a good metric to use to judge nationwide political trends, of course. Special election turnouts are usually pretty tiny -- only the most-dedicated voters usually turn out for one. So Democrats shouldn't get too optimistic about, say, their chances in next year's midterms. A lot could happen between now and next November, to state the obvious, and special election trends don't always pan out in regularly-scheduled elections that follow.
Even so, other trend lines also seem to be headed in a good direction for Democrats. Trump's job approval numbers are once again underwater, and historically the only other president who has polled worse at this point in their term is... Donald Trump (from his first term). As time goes by and prices remain high, the polling is likely to get worse for him (not to mention the clown show of people close to him, which could also have an effect in the polls). Another sign of weakness: most Republicans have already stopped holding town hall meetings in their districts, since they don't want to face the anger of the voters. What Elon Musk is doing to the government is not exactly popular, and that's putting it mildly.
Pulling a nomination to save a single House seat is not exactly a show of strength or confidence. Speaker Mike Johnson is already having trouble keeping his caucus together on key votes, and if he loses another seat next week this will get even tougher. So it's easy to see why the decision to pull Stefanik's nomination was made: Republicans are getting worried. And if Democrats do manage to flip that Florida district next week, these worries are only going to grow.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I'm not sure how you got the results of the special elections to be a 4-seat Dem gain, resulting in 218 R - 217 D. As you say, only one of the two races in Florida appears to be even in play for the Dems, and 'in play' is not the same as an actual miraculous 'huge upset', in your words. But assume the upset, as you do, it still seems like the other Republican seat in Florida is safe for the GOP. The best possible outcome of the four upcoming special elections, then, would be 219 R - 216 D.
But put that aside - both results leave the Republicans with an incredibly thin margin for passing laws, just as they currently have.
Why, then, are they worried, as the subject of this post announces? It can't be the possible loss of one more seat for an even closer margin on the floor of the House.
I would say that, if they are worried, they are worried because a possible Democratic victory in a Florida R+30 seat is actually a "good metric of nationwide political trends" in this particular year. It matches the other events you note, which all show an electorate that is really, really unhappy with the second Trump administration and by extension, Trump's entire Party, Congress and all.
Maybe, as you say, "Democrats shouldn't get too optimistic about, say, their chances in next year's midterms". But maybe, as you refuse to conclude, Republicans are worried about their chances in next year's midterms because they've never, never experienced so much public repulsion of their president's and Party's actions and messages. When was the last time in a political cycle that Representatives, en masse, abandoned the usually tame Town Halls that feed their constituent relations and home-town audiences?
If the Democrats, as expected, hold onto the two open seats on their side of the aisle, then flipping two other seats would leave Republicans with the tightest margin possible -- 218 to 217.
Democrats will definitely (barring some kind of miracle) hold onto the two open special election seats in TX and AZ... Houston and Tucson and Republicans hold onto their two open special election seats in FL so Elise Stefanik actually receiving that promised promotion (assuming no other departures), the Republicans would hold a 219-215 majority so why wouldn't they go ahead and promote her? Thoughts to ponder.
Seriously... Stefanik won that seat in NY-21 by 24 points so I guess the next time anyone hears these GOP congress critters in the House bragging about their "huge mandate," think how Trump and company were so sure of the "hugeness" of that so-called "mandate" that it caused them to screw over Elise Stefanik for one tiny little vote in the House.
FPC
@JL,
just the one that picks on a vulnerable population.
You mean, like Democrat Rep Crockett did when she mocked and ridiculed Governor Abbott for being crippled??
You mean like that???
Even in your "indignation" yer still enslaved by your Party's Hate-America ideology.. :eyeroll:
Don't tell me.. Let me guess.. You "don't have any idea what I am talking about", eh??
It's funny how, when it's PRESIDENT Trump or a GOP'er allegedly in the wrong, you are a fount of knowledge...
But when it's a DEMOCRAT who has done dirty deeds you ALL OF THE SUDDEN, don't have a single clue...
Funny how that is ALWAYS the case, eh?? :eyeroll:
Yunno ya'all whine and cry about such a slim margin the GOP House has..
And yet, LOOK what they have been able to accomplish!!
Apparently the FACTS prove that it's only DEMOCRATS who can't do shit with slim margins in the House..
The GOP is chugging right along accomplishing a whole bunch of stuff...
Funny how that is, eh? :D
"It's funny because it's true"
-Homer Simpson
http://mfccfl.us/theface.jpg
:D
Democrats are simply weird...
http://mfccfl.us/frog.jpg
JL,
the democratic party is being dumb, no doubt.
Democrats are **COMMITTING ACTS OF DOMESTIC TERRORISM**!!!!!
Democrats are **FIGHTING** to keep murderers and terrorists and rapists IN this country!!
Democrats are **TRYING TO STOP** HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS in waste, fraud and abuse from being uncovered and exposed..
And YOU call that "being dumb"!!!????
W T F!!!???
Do you see how far off the reservation you and your Trump/America hating Democrats have gone??
How far out in the political wilderness you and your Trump/America hating Democrats are!!??
You people are like in a totally different galaxy for how far ya'all have moved normal American... nay... normal CIVILIZED values!!!!
And YOU call it "being dumb"... :eyeroll:
It's my long work week, so I am off to prep for a weekend of night shifts..
This will give you time to ponder how far off the reservation your terroristic Democrat Party has gone...
:eyeroll:
On the PLUS side, with all the acts of domestic terrorism committed by the Democrat Party over the last couple months, maybe it will shut ya'all up about whining and crying over a protest gone bad that lasted for a couple hours..
:eyeroll:
G'nite… :D
You mean, like Democrat Rep Crockett did when she mocked and ridiculed Governor Abbott for being crippled??
the false equivalency train has once again left the station. she called him "governor hot wheels," and claimed she was referring to his policy of transporting immigrants, not his wheelchair. that's about as far as humanly possible from intentionally calling someone a known slur.
now it's certainly possible she's lying about what she meant, but what else has she said to not merit the benefit of the doubt? if it's an ongoing pattern, i'd certainly join you in condemning her. but again, that's not even a slightly an excuse for you breaking your word.
JL
https://www.specialolympics.org/stories/impact/why-the-r-word-is-the-r-slur
for the record, I don't love that caddy refers to himself as a "libtard" either, but at least it's self-deprecating.
Self depreciating and a great icebreaker when encountering Trumpanzies. Even without that I just never could get much worked up over the word retard.
worked up or not, for people with cognitive disabilities the R-word is the equivalent of N****r for black folk or F****t for gay folk.
y'know, take that information and do with it what you will.
the false equivalency train has once again left the station.
It's an EXACT equivalency..
She is picking on a "vulnerable population."
It's EXACTLY the same..
now it's certainly possible she's lying about what she meant, but what else has she said to not merit the benefit of the doubt?
You mean like she wants to "take down Elon Musk"? That she wants to "beat Senator Cruz over the head"?? That she wants others to "take out Elon Musk" as a birthday present to her??
But let's face reality, JL.. The ONLY reason you want to believe her is because she is a Democrat.. If she had an R before her name, you would condemn her to high heaven and back..
Simple another example of your ideological slavery and hypocrisy..
Your "charismatic" leader Headboard Harris LAUGHED when a person at her rally called PRESIDENT Trump "retarded"...
Did you condemn Harris??
No, you did not. And you didn't condemn Harris because she is a Democrat..
There are MANY examples of Democrats using the word "retarded" that you give a pass to SOLELY because they are Democrats.
That's my biggest problem with you JL.. You act so righteous but ONLY when it's PRESIDENT Trump or the GOP..
You give a pass to Democrats for ANYTHING, solely because they are Democrats..
The fact that you completely ignore #7 proves that beyond any doubt..
Oh, and just for the record.. "Dumb" is a slur against those people who cannot speak...
You should watch those slurs, eh? :eyeroll:
In a district that favored Donald Trump by 30 points, the Democratic candidate has raised a huge pile of money and the polling shows a shockingly tight, single-digit race.
You just describe Headboard Harris and the 2024 election..
Remind me again.. HOW exactly did that work out for ya'all??
I'm just sayin'... :D
And, just like that...
No one is talking about Trump/America hater Goldberg's bullshit claims of "war plans"...
:D
What Elon Musk is doing to the government is not exactly popular, and that's putting it mildly.
What Elon Musk is doing to the government is not exactly popular amongst brain dead Trump/America haters suffering from PTDS....
There... I fixed it for you..
NOW it reflects the objective reality...
Once again, it's HILARIOUS that you Democrats are actually FIGHTING to keep HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of dollars in waste, fraud and abuse from being uncovered..
Democrats find themselves on the 20% side of another 80/20 issue.. :D
Chicago is MURDER CAPITAL of the world...
How apropos.....
The current leadership in Chicago, dominated by the brain dead Democrat Party, has taken a dangerous and misguided approach to governance that is endangering the safety and well-being of its residents. The city has been dubbed "America's murder capital," with a staggering 573 homicides recorded in 2024 alone. This grim statistic marks the 13th consecutive year that Chicago has led the nation in homicides, yet the response from Democratic leaders has been to double down on their "Defund the Police" agenda and sanctuary city policies, which are clearly failing the very citizens they are meant to protect.
Alderman Anthony Napolitano has been vocal in condemning the priorities of the city’s leadership, stating that they are more focused on demonizing the police than addressing the rampant crime that plagues our neighborhoods. Instead of bolstering the police force to combat the rising violence, they are intent on diverting essential funding away from law enforcement. This reckless decision not only undermines public safety but also sends a message that the lives of Chicagoans are not a priority.
Moreover, the city’s sanctuary policies have further complicated the situation. Resources that could be allocated to law enforcement are instead being funneled into supporting illegal migrants, a move that has drawn significant backlash from constituents. Napolitano points out that the city has invested millions into initiatives like the INVEST South/West program, which has proven to be an "epic fail." Rather than creating a safe environment that attracts businesses and investment across the city, these misguided efforts have only exacerbated the issues at hand.
The brain dead Democrat "leadership's" (such as it is) refusal to acknowledge the severity of the crime crisis is alarming. They seem more concerned with political optics than with the safety of their constituents. As crime rates soar, residents in neighborhoods like Napolitano's are left without adequate police support, making it increasingly difficult for them to receive help when they need it most. This neglect is not just a failure of policy; it is a betrayal of the trust placed in these leaders by the people of Chicago.
OK, Children.. What have we learned??
Brain dead Democrat leaders in Chicago must be held accountable for their disastrous policies that prioritize political agendas over public safety. The "Defund the Police" movement and sanctuary city status are not just misguided; they are actively harming the very communities they claim to serve. It is time for a change in leadership that prioritizes the safety and security of all Chicagoans.
Leave it to Democrat governance to totally ruin anything it touches..
Silence gives assent.....
Poet
13
14
I did not know this to be the case. I am correctable, so “so noted” and thank you falettinmeknow.
nypoet22
9
the false equivalency train has once again left the station. she called him "governor hot wheels," and claimed she was referring to his policy of transporting immigrants, not his wheelchair.
That's definitely a nickname Abbott earned in early 2021 from "Operation Lone Star" (I trust you can Google it) wherein he signed legislation that began the bussing of immigrants from Texas to sanctuary cities, and you are definitely correct that the false equivalency train has left the station (albeit the bus station) that anyone would refer to that nickname of Abbott's as him being "mocked and ridiculed for being crippled." She simply called him that nickname. So for any GOP right-wingnut that would automatically jump to the conclusion that the nickname is to "mock and ridicule for being crippled," this goes a long way to explain the factual: Gaslight, Ostruct, Project... because this is an exercise of the Righties projecting the totally Trumpian and GOP modus operandi onto Crockett.
It also might be helpful for me to explain that there are hundreds of thousands of Texans that knew/know Greg Abbott personally. How? He did go to high school, you know, and he also worked at a very popular drug store that everybody visited. Gregg wasn't born with a congenital disability that put him in a wheelchair, so there are hundreds of thousands of Texans who view the Texas governor as being "injured," not necessarily in the same way others might view him as being "disabled."
Quick explanation: When Abbott was 26 (and no medical insurance), he decided to go running in an affluent Texas neighborhood while it was windy. A huge oak tree broke off at the base and struck his spine and paralyzed him below the injured vertebrae. Abbott sued the owner of the property, an affluent divorce lawyer named Roy Moore, and the tree company which had inspected the tree for the homeowner. His lawsuit alleged that Moore and the tree company were negligent for failing to warn people about the oak tree and to prevent it from falling. Fast forward to a settlement in 1986 wherein Abbott has collected almost $6 million (so far, I believe) from multiple settlements from multiple defendants.
Has everyone had all your tress inspected lately to make sure they're not rotting from the inside? But I digress. Rather than go to trial, Abbott got a settlement almost entirely made up of noneconomic damages (mental pain and anguish) versus actual monetary damages for hospital bills, etc. Rich homeowner with insurance, poor uninsured law student, freak accident you won't see all too often.
In 1995, the Texas Legislature capped punitive damages stemming from noneconomic losses at $750,000, and they also erected hurdles for plaintiffs who try to collect from multiple defendants. In 2003, the Texas Legislature capped noneconomic damages in medical malpractice cases at $250,000 (with no increases for the cost of living), and Abbott supported the tort reform.
So a whole lot of Texans refer to Gregg Abbott "Govenor Hypocrite" for that move, and there's quite a few of them who call him "Governor Hot Wheels" for his Operation Lone Star wherein he busses thousands of people to sanctuary cities, and a whole lot of them do not see him as "disabled" but "injured."
Me personally? I call him "Governor Dickless" and it has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that he lost the use of his penis in the tree accident.
now it's certainly possible she's lying about what she meant, but what else has she said to not merit the benefit of the doubt?
Nothing I can recall... yet, but Gregg Abbott definitely has a lot of nicknames like "Spineless" and "Dickless" and "No Balls" that we routinely use to describe all manner of spineless, dickless, and demonstrably cowardly right-wingnuts with no cojones/testicles (and Democrats too, for that matter)... and I don't give a single *duck* if anyone misconstrues it for making fun of his accident when it's most definitely not.
And that's all I have to say (today) about "Governor Dickless." :)
MtnCaddy
12
Self depreciating and a great icebreaker when encountering Trumpanzies. Even without that I just never could get much worked up over the word retard.
So you're saying you're not one of those whiny little bitches (figure of speech) who will dish it out to all manner of people and then whine relentlessly like a butthurt thin-skinned hypocritical ginormous asshole if anyone else does it back?
Good on you, brother. :)
Yup. I fucking hate political correctness. Hand wringing over words instead of deeds (or lack of deeds).