ChrisWeigant.com

Elon Musk's Big Loss

[ Posted Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 – 15:48 UTC ]

Before the votes were counted in Wisconsin last night, Elon Musk said the race "might decide the future of America and Western civilization" and "the future of the world." Afterwards, he tried to spin the outcome: "I expected to lose, but there is value to losing a piece for positional gain." Nice try, Elon.

This was the most expensive race for a state supreme court seat in American history, with over $100 million spent in total. Musk was responsible for one-fourth of that, sinking $25 million of his own money into the race. Which may have actually been the determinative factor, since many voters were absolutely disgusted with an outsider trying to openly buy a supreme court seat.

It was an important race, since it was a liberal seat up for grabs. If the conservative had won, the balance of Wisconsin's highest court would have flipped to the conservatives. But the liberal candidate romped to an easy 10-point victory last night, cementing liberal control for at least the next few years. Since liberals wrested control of the court back, they have ruled a gerrymandered district map for the state legislature was unconstitutional, which will level the field for Democrats in the state government. They haven't yet ruled on the gerrymandered districts for the U.S. House of Representatives though, where Republicans hold six out of eight seats (in a state that is as close to 50/50 as you can get). If that map gets tossed out too, it could flip two House seats to Democrats -- which would be almost enough for them to regain control of the House again. This was what Musk's overblown hyperbole was referring to.

Musk essentially put himself on the ballot. He made the race into a referendum on him. And Wisconsin voters showed him exactly what they felt about him. Not even jumping around a stage wearing a cheesehead hat helped.

Wisconsin voters turned out in huge numbers yesterday. There is real voter enthusiasm among Democrats right now, which could bode well for them in the midterms next year. People are angry and want to fight back, and what many of them are angriest about is Elon Musk himself. When he made the Wisconsin election all about him it spurred even more enthusiasm from Democratic voters -- which was more than enough to overcome Elon's money. A new poll backs this up -- Musk is only seen favorably by 38 percent of the public, while 60 percent has an unfavorable view of him. He's now so politically toxic that even Donald Trump is reportedly ready to show him the door.

But it's not just Musk and it's not just Wisconsin. Democrats are doing well in other special elections too. They lost two special House elections in Florida yesterday (in very red districts), but not by nearly as much as Trump won these districts. The Democratic candidates overperformed the votes that Kamala Harris got by 17 and 22 percent. That's a big swing, and it's showing up in almost all the special elections that have been held so far, across the country. In the 16 elections held so far this year, Democrats have overperformed in 14 of them. In 10 of them, Democrats overperformed by 10 points or better, and in three of them, they overperformed by over 20 percent. And that doesn't even count the election win in Wisconsin last night (which was for a judicial seat, not a legislative district).

Turnout for these elections is mixed, but in Wisconsin it was pretty huge. Judicial elections are usually pretty sleepy affairs, but the turnout yesterday was 70 percent of the turnout last November -- about what a midterm election usually gets, and far more than judicial elections usually manage in the state. And the liberal candidate overperformed Harris in every single county, even the reddest, most-conservative ones.

Democratic voters are frustrated and angry. They've been venting this anger in town hall meetings and at rallies held by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and this anger has now translated into votes. And Wisconsin sent a very clear signal as well: Elon Musk helps Democratic candidates, when he jumps into a race and tries to buy it. This will likely mean Republican candidates will be very wary about inviting Musk to their rallies from now on.

It does bear mentioning that the midterms are more than a year and a half away, which is an eternity in politics. Anything could happen between now and then, in other words. And winning special elections doesn't always translate into midterm victories either. Even so, things are looking a lot more positive for Democrats right now than for the Republicans. Elon's big investment in the Wisconsin race backfired on him spectacularly, in a very personal way. Democrats can only hope he'll insert his obnoxious self into more races, leaping about a stage in a funny hat. Because the more people see and get to know Musk, the less they like him. And when the race is seen as Musk being on the ballot, Musk loses.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

5 Comments on “Elon Musk's Big Loss”

  1. [1] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Bice: Elon Musk group removes video from $1M winner after she says she got money to 'vote'

    The video removed from twitter was later re-posted with the "vote" edited out. Ol' Musky boy knows he is treading a fine line with his million dollar giveaways. He doesn't want a buying votes charge hanging over him...

  2. [2] 
    Kick wrote:

    Musk essentially put himself on the ballot.

    Musk has essentially put himself on virtually every ballot in America regardless if he never wields another chainsaw, wears another cheesehead (or equivalent), or writes another check. Trump's African American (former illegal alien) is officially the poster child for the GOP.

    He made the race into a referendum on him.

    After the crap he has "tweeted" and said and done to the United States, virtually every race in America should be a referendum on him... and Trump and the Trump Tax Tarrifs.

    Right now is exactly the time for Republicans with any cojones to pull your heads out of Trump's ass, stop cowering in fear to a wannabe dictator, grow a spine, and do something.

  3. [3] 
    John M from Ct. wrote:

    Kick on [2],
    I feel your pain. But I tend to doubt that Republicans, with or without cojones, will pull themselves out of Trump's ass, etc. and "do something".

    All they have to do is say that Musk ain't Trump - that Musk got it wrong but Trump still has it right. More exactly, that Trump's influence on a GOP primary still seems to be definitive, unlike Musk's extra-GOP vote-buying.

    In short, let's see Trump go down in a series of legislative endorsements - failing to throw a number of elections to the Trumpist candidates - before we expect any realistic number of GOP congresspeople to actually go public against their president.

  4. [4] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    I’m with y’all, and for the record I long ago gave up on them Repugs bailing on Trump until it was way beyond obvious that they should abandon ship.

  5. [5] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    An interesting post on Reddit listing the tariffs per country:

    A 10% baseline tax on imports from all countries and higher tariff rates on dozens of nations that run trade surpluses with the United States

    34% tax on imports from China added to the 20%
    for a 54% total tariff. Yikes!
    20% tax on imports from the European Union
    25% on South Korea
    24% on Japan
    32% on Taiwan.

    Vietnam 46%
    India 26%
    Norway 15%
    Moldova 31%
    Thailand 36%
    Iraq 39%
    Democratic Republic of the Congo 11%
    Republic of the Congo 10%
    Angola 32%
    Cameroon 11%
    Falkland Islands 41%
    Mozambique 16%
    Zambia 17%
    Switzerland 31%
    Indonesia 32%
    Malaysia 24%
    Cambodia 49%
    UK 10%
    Zimbabwe 18%
    Malawi 17%
    Syria 41%
    Vanuatu 22%
    Liechtenstein 37%
    Guyana 38%
    Libya 31%
    Equatorial Guinea 13%
    South Africa 30%
    Brazil 10%
    Bangladesh 37%
    Singapore 10%
    Israel 17%
    Fiji 32%
    Tunisia 28%
    Ukraine 10%
    Nicaragua 18%
    Kazakhstan 27%
    Laos 48%
    Côte d'Ivoire/Ivory Coast 21%
    Botswana 37%
    Venezuela 15%
    Philippines 17%
    Mauritius 40%
    Chad 13%
    Nigeria 14%
    Saint Pierre and Miquelon 50%
    Chile 10%
    Nauru 30%
    Algeria 30%
    Brunei 24%
    Jordan 20%
    El Salvador 10%
    Pakistan 29%
    Namibia 21%
    Myanmar 44%
    Sri Lanka 44%
    Serbia 37%
    Madagascar 47%
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 35%
    Lesotho 50%
    North Macedonia 33%
    Norfolk Island 29%
    Réunion 37%

    This is going to get ugly fast...

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