James Carville's famous political maxim ("It's the economy, stupid") needs updating. As we all ride out the Trump Slump in various ways, what we've got now is: "It's the stupid economy." The people running things are stupid. They are making stupid decisions. They have no clue whatsoever what they are doing, and it shows. Stupid is as stupid does. Welcome to The Stupid Economy, folks.

Economist (and Nobel Prize laureate) Paul Krugman went a slightly different direction (in an article titled "Trump Is Stupid, Erratic and Weak"), preferring: "It's the uncertainty, stupid," but either way it works out the same. Krugman prefaced his article with a video clip of a guy bouncing on a pogo stick, titled: "Live shot of Donald Trump setting tariffs." This was followed by: "Here's what happened yesterday," his lead-in to the "Run away!" clip from Monty Python And The Holy Grail. He might just as easily have chosen the "It's just a flesh wound" clip, but we won't quibble with his choice.

After last week's "Liberation Day" (a political moniker doubtlessly destined to take its place right next to "Mission Accomplished" in the pantheon of laughably-Orwellian political infamy), we all watched the stock market crater, day after day. It was a rollercoaster ride that only seemed to go down. When the bond market also showed signs of tanking, obviously someone with a brain (and some fundamental grasp of basic economics) finally explained to the president that he had made an enormously stupid decision, so he backed off (after insisting repeatedly that he wasn't even considering such a move). The stock market recovered -- for one day (before going back to tanking). Trump caved. But he did so in a way that left us even worse off than before, by some measures. He set fire to a building, called the fire department, and now wants credit for saving the building -- that he set on fire.

Team Trump seems to have come up with the original formula for how to set their "reciprocal tariffs" by asking an A.I. chatbot. Which is pretty stupid, you've got to admit. After slapping tariffs on islands populated only by penguins (monumentally stupid), Trump was forced to cave and hastily announced that he was now going to pause all these tariffs for 90 days. However, the baseline 10 percent tariff would remain, for every country in the world (even the penguin-inhabited ones) -- with the notable exception of Russia (because Putin is our bestest friend, according to Trump).

China, however, was singled out for actually standing up to Trump. This is where things get truly stupid. Initially, the A.I. chatbot figured the tariff on China should be 34 percent, which is what Trump announced last week. This is on top of the existing 20 percent tariffs on China, so this would have meant a 54 percent total tariff rate. China retaliated by slapping their own 34 percent tariff on U.S. goods. Trump flew off the handle and started just pulling tariff numbers out of his ass, beginning with another 50 percent (total tariff: 104 percent). China thought about it, and then matched it (total Chinese tariff: 84 percent).

This, of course, incensed Trump, so he made an announcement that stood out in all the chaotic stupidity of the week for being so ill-thought-out that his own team didn't even understand it. At first, it seemed like Trump was adding another 21 percent, which would have put the total rate on China at 125 percent. Which is the figure many administration officials then quoted. But then it turned out this would be 125 percent plus the base 20 percent tariff we had started with, for a jaw-dropping total of a 145 percent tariff rate -- a rise of 41 percent, not 21.

Today, China matched this, bringing their tariffs on U.S. products up to 125 percent. But they did announce that this would be it from their side -- any further hikes by the U.S. would be seen by them as nothing short of ridiculous and would not be matched by China, because at a tax rate of 125 percent, no U.S. supplier will be able to sell anything in China. If this continues, trade between the two biggest economies in the world might just grind to a halt. Meaning, among many other things, another multibillion-dollar bailout to American farmers will be required soon.

Which is, not to put too fine a point on it, pretty stupid.

Because we trade so much with China, even with Trump's "pause" on all the other countries on the planet, the astronomical rate on China meant the effective tariff rate we're charging the world now went up, not down. We're now into rates that either match or surpass (depending on how exactly you figure it) the Smoot-Hawley tariffs (which made the Great Depression so much fun for everyone on the planet). We're kind of surprised that we haven't heard anyone quote the "those who ignore history are destined to repeat it" line yet, to tell you the truth.

One quote that we hadn't heard before seemed to sum up the week. It came from Dan Rather on social media, who identified it as a "Turkish proverb." What he wrote: "When a clown moves into a palace he doesn't become king, the palace instead becomes a circus."

Things got so bad this week that even Trump-supporting billionaires started sounding the alarm, starting with Elon Musk himself, who got into a playground spat with Peter Navarro (the most pro-tariff guy advising Trump right now). But Bill Ackman had the most-quoted reaction last weekend: "[The U.S. is] heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down." The key phrase in that is self-induced, since this is government-by-whim in action. The billionaires weren't the only ones, either -- even some Republicans in Congress fell off the Trump bandwagon with a thump as they admitted they had no idea what the strategy even was behind Trump's stupidity.

When Trump finally caved, there was an enormous sigh of relief audible even from within his own party. That's how bad things have gotten -- even some members of the cult were getting worried, even after Trump told them to "be cool."

More stupidity: all of this is having exactly the opposite effect of what it was intended to do, as companies are now seeking even closer ties to China -- since China is now seen as the adult in the room and far more stable than the three-ring circus the United States has become. China is confident that they have the upper hand in this pissing contest, since their government is not as susceptible to public opinion and doesn't have to worry about voter blowback in any upcoming elections. They also control almost all the world's mining and production of rare earth minerals that the entire globe is dependent upon for all sorts of high-tech parts, and they could shut off the supply to the United States at any time -- a card in their hand that few have even noticed yet.

More unintended effects of The Stupid Economy:

President Trump's 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles, which went into effect last week, are already sending tremors through the auto industry, prompting companies to stop shipping cars to the United States, shut down factories in Canada and Mexico and lay off workers in Michigan and other states.

Jaguar Land Rover, based in Britain, said it would temporarily stop exporting its luxury cars to the United States. Stellantis idled factories in Canada and Mexico that make Chrysler and Jeep vehicles and laid off 900 U.S. workers who supplied those factories with engines and other parts.

. . .

If other carmakers make similar moves, the economic impact could be severe, leading to higher car prices and widespread layoffs. The tariffs on cars are among the first of several industry-specific levies that Mr. Trump has in his sights and could offer early clues about how businesses will respond to his trade policies, including whether they raise prices or increase manufacturing in the United States. The president has said he also wants to tax the imports of medicines and computer chips.

The article goes on to point out that this could mean consumers pay as much as $20,000 more for a new car. Call it The Stupid Economy tax.

It's been over a week now, so public opinion polls are just starting to show the public's reaction to The Stupid Economy, and it isn't good. Consumer confidence continues to plummet, with people expecting inflation to severely spike in the coming months. People are also getting worried about the prospect of stagflation returning. Trump's job approval numbers are now underwater, with Nate Silver figuring the average as Trump being five points down (and, notably, his job disapproval numbers above 50 percent for the first time in his second term), with only 45.6 percent approval to 50.6 disapproval. Poll after poll shows a sharp downward movement for Trump, after Liberation Day. Real Clear Politics shows Trump's averages on specific subjects to be even worse: down 10.5 percent on the economy, and down a whopping 13.5 percent on inflation. All of these are trending downward, which isn't too surprising.

Next up in the parade of stupidity: tariffs on pharmaceuticals and computer chips! Woo hoo! Because everyone knows that Americans are drastically underpaying for their prescription drugs, right? And it's not like we need computer chips to build... well... everything these days, is it? Also upcoming: what's going to happen at the end of that 90-day "pause" period? Trump paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico, only to reinstate them later, so nobody has any clue what he'll do when the pause period is over. We might be headed for more rollercoaster rides just like the last week and a half, in the very near future. Buckle up, everyone!

There was other political news this week, but most of it was overshadowed by the fallout from The Stupid Economy moves by Trump. One that wasn't, though, could be heading for the brink of outright constitutional crisis. Here's a good rundown of the basics of this drama, which is being played out between the judiciary and executive branches right now:

[U.S. District Judge Paula] Xinis said Abrego García's deportation "shocks the conscience" because he is being forcibly held, at U.S. expense, in a notorious prison filled with alleged gang members.

"Although the legal basis for the mass removal of hundreds of individuals to El Salvador remains disturbingly unclear, Abrego Garcia's case is categorically different -- there were no legal grounds whatsoever for his arrest, detention, or removal," the judge wrote. "Rather, his detention appears wholly lawless."

. . .

"The 'evidence' against Abrego García consisted of nothing more than his Chicago Bulls hat and hoodie, and a vague, uncorroborated allegation from a confidential informant claiming he belonged to MS-13's 'Western' clique in New York -- a place he has never lived," Xinis added.

The judge issued an order intended to force the White House to immediately return García to the United States, so he could have his day in court. The White House astoundingly responded that this would be impossible, since it would trod on the president's ability to conduct foreign policy. Which is patently ridiculous -- we are paying El Salvador to hold these people in jail, and a simple phone call from Trump would be all it would take to bring García back.

The judge's order was appealed. The appellate court upheld it. So the administration appealed to the Supreme Court. Which, in an astounding 9-to-0 decision essentially upheld the order, sending it back to the original judge for clarification. In a separate decision, the Supreme Court also stated that people to be deported under the Alien Enemies Act (which was not used in the case of García) also had to be given their day in court to challenge evidence against them.

As things stand, we're still in a sort of standoff. The judge wanted the administration to provide a plan for getting García back to America, but the administration begged for more time. So the judge is now demanding daily updates on his status, and what is being done to get him back.

But we're still on the brink of a constitutional crisis, because the White House is still flirting with just ignoring the courts and asserting that no judges -- not even the Supreme Court -- have any say whatsoever in what it calls "foreign policy." This could all come to a head very soon.

Again, just to be clear: this could all be resolved with one phone call from Trump to the leader of El Salvador, who would gladly do anything Trump requests. García could easily be back here in a matter of hours.

If Trump defies the court, then there will be absolutely nothing stopping him from whisking away anybody -- including even United States citizens -- to a foreign hellhole of a prison, and then blithely stating that since they're on foreign soil, his hands are tied and he simply can't do anything to get anyone back. All without any judicial review or other "day in court" for the people involved.

So you can bet we'll be closely watching the outcome of this case, because it is such a disgrace that even right-wing voices have been protesting how wrong it is for the president to think he has the ability to just "disappear" people on a whim.

We have a group award to hand out this week. The Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week is every single person who turned out for one of the "Hands Off!" protests last weekend.

Protests have been happening ever since Trump took office, mind you. With the exception of the protests against Tesla (and Elon Musk), they haven't been covered much in the mainstream media, but people are angry out there -- angry about cuts to services (and, ironically, efficiency) at places like the V.A., the Social Security Administration, and the National Park Service, to name just three. But last weekend was more comprehensive, with 1,200 protests in all 50 states in city after city after city. People have had enough, and they marched through the streets to vent their frustration.

As mentioned, the protest was a general one, with plenty of people completing the "hands off" slogan with their own messages ("Hands off Medicaid," for instance). Take a look at some of the signs displayed and you can easily see there are multiple reasons people are angry.

This is precisely what is needed right now, and we hope it continues to grow, over time. Voters are not sitting back and waiting for Democratic politicians to lead them, they are out there leading by example. The Democratic Party is still struggling to match the energy from their own grassroots, but every demonstration of that energy out there will (hopefully) inspire them.

It's easy to just get depressed or despondent at the news. It's harder to get motivated and get out there and express your feelings. But the marches last week did actually get a decent amount of coverage in the media, which is a big step forward. So to everyone who made this happen -- to every person who got up off the couch and went and marched and yelled and sang along, this week's Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week is for you.

[We would heartily encourage everyone to get out there and have your voices heard, in the next protest you hear about. Because this certainly won't be the last one of them, that's for sure.]

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer gave a speech this week where she offered "a more nuanced assessment" of tariffs, without blatantly condemning Trump's stupidity.

Now, that alone wouldn't be worth getting a Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week award, since Whitmer is from Michigan and Democrats are struggling to appeal to Union workers, including autoworkers. So it's somewhat understandable. And Whitmer, to her credit, didn't fully endorse Trump's use of tariffs, saying: "You can't just pull out the tariff hammer to swing at every problem without a clear, defined end goal," which is precisely what Trump has been doing -- swinging away with no clue what he's even trying to accomplish.

But then Whitmer visited Trump in the White House and made an appearance in front of the cameras:

Later Wednesday, Whitmer joined Trump and others in the Oval Office as he signed executive orders. He praised her leadership, saying she has "really done an excellent job," and mentioned they were working on issues related to Selfridge Air National Guard Base, outside Detroit.

But then, illustrating the political peril for Democrats seeking collaboration with Trump, the president signed executive actions targeting two officials who served in his previous administration and opposed actions Trump had taken.

These former officials were targeted for the sin of telling the truth about the 2020 election, plain and simple. Because to Trump, contradicting one of his lies is indeed an unforgiveable sin, and contradicting his Big Lie is the worst sin of all. Here's the story:

Two executive orders targeted Christopher Krebs, who as a senior cybersecurity official oversaw the securing of the 2020 presidential election, and Miles Taylor, who served as chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security during Mr. Trump's first term and anonymously wrote a high-profile opinion article for The New York Times in 2018. Among other measures, the orders directed Pam Bondi, the attorney general, and Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary, to investigate the former officials and report their findings to the White House.

. . .

Mr. Trump has also sought to rewrite the history of his defeat in 2020, and has continued to repeat his lie that the election was stolen from him. Mr. Krebs, leading the agency tasked with protecting election machinery from foreign interference, shot down many of Mr. Trump's false claims of widespread fraud, and Mr. Trump fired Mr. Krebs days after his loss. Mr. Trump has continued to harbor deep resentments against the agency.

"This guy, Krebs, was saying 'oh the election was great,'" Mr. Trump said Wednesday as he signed the order. He added, of Mr. Krebs: "He's the fraud. He's a disgrace."

The executive order punishing Mr. Krebs referred to Mr. Trump's debunked claims, asserting that Mr. Krebs had "denied that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen, including by inappropriately and categorically dismissing widespread election malfeasance and serious vulnerabilities with voting machines."

And there was Governor Whitmer, standing in the Oval Office as Trump signed these spiteful orders against people who did nothing more than tell the American public the truth. That's more than just "disappointing," you've got to admit.

Her spokespeople tried to giver Whitmer cover afterwards, saying: "The governor was surprised that she was brought into the Oval Office during President Trump's press conference without any notice of the subject matter. Her presence is not an endorsement of the actions taken or statements made at that event."

Which we have to say, was too little and too late. When you lie down with dogs, you shouldn't be surprised when you get up with fleas.

So for choosing this week to offer weak support for Trump's tariffs, for speaking of the wonderfulness of bipartisanship in the midst of an entirely self-inflicted economic meltdown, and for being a prop in a vengeful photo op in the Oval Office, Gretchen Whitmer is the winner of this week's Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week.

[Contact Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer on her official contact page, to let her know what you think of her actions.]

Volume 791 (4/11/25)

Once again, this week is almost entirely a one-subject week. We did add in one at the end just because it is so egregious, but for the most part these are reactions to the wild ride we've all been on since "Liberation Day."

Maybe next week will be better, but we certainly aren't going to bet the farm on it or anything.

   The Stupid Economy / Trump Slump

Choose your metaphor, they all pretty much work at this point.

"Donald Trump is not some master of 'the art of the deal,' he is in so far over his head it's not even funny. As he singlehandedly destroys trillions of dollars of stock value, Americans watch their retirement accounts plummet with alarm. It's not the economy, stupid, it's now The Stupid Economy -- an economy so stupid it is run by someone without even a basic understanding of how tariffs work, with a chorus of cheerleaders telling him what a genius he is. But the emperor still has no clothes on, no matter how many times he brings his cabinet in to tell him how beautiful he is. We're in the Trump Slump -- the biggest self-inflicted economic wound in all of history. What's truly ironic is that Trump ran on being some sort of economic wizard who would make prices come down and everything better, and instead what we got was America beclowning itself on the world stage. We're still pretty close to absolute economic calamity, folks, and with Trump in charge it seems to all depend on what mood he is in at any point during the day. So, once again: welcome to The Stupid Economy."

   The whims of a madman

This one's from an anonymous Republican member of Congress, and you can see why he wanted to remain just an anonymous source.

[Donald Trump] creates problems and then pretends to solve them. We enable him and we haven't learned yet how to battle this stupidity. The country and the world is suffering from the whims of a madman.

   Working perfectly!

The next one was tweeted out by Senator Brian Schatz, and summed up the feelings midweek on all the stupid whiplash:

OUR PLAN IS WORKING PERFECTLY AND IS JUST A NEGOTIATING TACTIC BUT IT IS ALSO GOING TO BE PERMANENT AND WE WILL BE THE WORLD LEADER IN TEXTILES AND NOW THERE IS A PAUSE AND EVERYONE NEEDS TO CHILL BUT ALSO WE WILL NEVER BACK DOWN AAAAAAHHHHHH

   King Canute

This one was an obvious choice, offered up by a Washington Post columnist:

During the week after he announced his many tariffs, President Donald Trump behaved like the fabled King Canute -- placing his throne on the beach and commanding the tide to halt. One week later, with his legs soaked and the water still rising, Trump grabbed a life preserver. In announcing a 90-day pause on most tariffs for every country except China, he acknowledged, however reluctantly, the harsh realities of economics, foreign policy and domestic politics.

   Government by chaos

This next one comes from Chuck Schumer, of all people.

This is chaos. This is government by chaos. [Donald Trump] keeps changing things from day to day. His advisors are fighting among themselves. You cannot run a country with such chaos.

This chaos seems just a game for Donald Trump, but it is very real for people's lives, people's retirement, their income. Trump seems to be playing a game of 'red light, green light.' One day this, one day that. I've never seen such a chaotic administration action.

. . .

Trump has created a situation where the whole world is against us, and everyone is furious at America. The only way you can bring China to be fairer is by creating alliances and having the world focused on China, instead of the whole world angry at America.

   Keep them away from sharp objects

This is how that aforementioned article by Paul Krugman started off:

Anyone sounding the all-clear on tariffs, or Trump economic policy in general, should be kept away from sharp objects and banned from operating heavy machinery. We're in a hardly better place than we were before Donald Trump announced a tariff pause (in a Truth Social post, of course.) In fact, we may be in a worse place.

Let me make four points about Trump's post-pause tariff regime.

1. Even the post-pause tariff rates represent a huge protectionist shock

2. Destructive uncertainty about future policy has increased

3. We’re still at risk of a major financial crisis

4. The world now knows that Trump is weak as well as erratic

   Promise made, promise broken!

We had to point this one out, even though it's not part of The Stupid Economy fiasco, just to remind everyone of what a congenital liar Donald Trump truly is.

"Remember when, on the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised he'd be the 'fertility president' and make in-vitro fertilization treatments available to all and force insurance companies to pay for them? Yeah, well, that was just as much a bunch of moosepoop as him being a financial wizard. This week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention fired all the people who monitor and track I.V.F. and maternal and infant health outcomes. Almost all of the Division of Reproductive Health were unceremoniously given their walking papers this week. So no more government research into making fertility treatments safer and more successful will happen from now on. And I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Trump to wave some magic wand and make I.V.F. affordable and accessible to all any time soon, either. It's yet another example of 'promises made, promises broken' from the biggest liar in American political history."

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

Cross-posted at: Democratic Underground