We now live in the world of Trumponomics, which might be defined as: "It's like Groundhog Day, except every day." I should specify that this is decidedly not in the sense of the movie of the same name -- where exactly the same things happen every day -- but rather in the sense that each and every day the entire world waits to see which side of the bed Donald Trump got up on: whether he's going to say something so threatening to the economy's future that the stock markets panic, or whether he's going to walk back some previous stupid comment and the stock market will recover a little bit.

The last few days have been somewhat hopeful, since it seems that some people still do have the power to stand up and explain to Trump that he is causing great harm. Trump blinked not once but twice this week, and reports are that in both cases it was directly due to people with greater knowledge than Trump explaining the ways of the world to him in such a way that he understood -- even to the point of backing down (which Trump hates to do). The first came when Trump reversed himself on wanting to fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the second came as Trump hinted at weakening his brutal tariff moves against China.

The markets tanked in a big way on Monday, reacting to Trump's threat to fire Jerome Powell, but then recovered yesterday and today as Trump was forced to back off his juvenile playground bullying. Here's how the investment world is seeing all of this:

A stock market surge on Wednesday was again fueled not by concrete evidence of policy changes, but by off-the-cuff comments from President Trump and other officials, as investors latched onto scraps of information about tariffs, trade and other crucial issues that can shift from day to day.

Wall Street's drastic swings this week -- a sharp sell-off on Monday, followed by two big daily rallies -- highlight how investors are swayed by the latest headlines amid the confusion and uncertainty about the White House's intentions.

. . .

"What is different about this current market environment," Mr. [Steve] Sosnick [chief strategist at Interactive Brokers] added, "is that it is so driven basically by one person's decisions."

A "huge" portion of the volatility, he said, "is strictly the result of policy decisions, and we're seeing them being altered in real time."

Despite this week's rally, the S&P 500 sits about 10 percent below its level on Jan. 20, when Mr. Trump took office.

"This whole crisis has been man-made," Mr. Sosnick said.

One other chief investment officer echoed this complaint: "Trump threatening [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell one day and then backing off because the market sold off -- that's not coherent policy." Another economist put a particularly apt label on the Trumponomic world we all now live in:

The effects of Wall Street being captive to the latest statements from the White House could be far-reaching, beyond the daily rises and falls. "The erratic threaten-retreat-threaten-retreat cycle has economic consequences," Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. "The uncertainty this causes may impact consumer and business decision-making."

Seems pretty obvious, right? But you have to love that "erratic threaten-retreat-threaten-retreat cycle" label, since it captures the Groundhog Day nature of it all. Will the groundhog see his shadow or not this morning? Stay tuned!

This reversal all came about because a few of Trump's top advisors actually pushed back on his harebrained scheme to fire Powell, as the Washington Post reports:

President Donald Trump's abrupt shift in rhetoric Tuesday toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell reflected the private lobbying of some of his senior advisers, who had urged the president to back off his incendiary attacks on the central bank, three people familiar with the matter said.

On Monday, the stock market fell precipitously as Trump attacked Powell as a "major loser," fueling speculation that the president would move to fire the Fed chief. But by Tuesday afternoon, Trump appeared to dial back his rhetoric, saying he had "no intention of firing" Powell and arguing that the "press runs away with things."

Got that? It was all the fault of the press, even though Trump kicked off the whole thing by posting about how much he wanted to fire Powell on his own pet social media site. But it was that dastardly press, reporting Trump's actual words, that was the real problem. So Trump was forced to begrudgingly walk it all back, while still desperately trying to pin all the economic woes since he took office on Powell:

The president's shift followed the counsel of several administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private deliberations. The officials cautioned that the administration did not need further disruption in financial markets from an all-out battle with the Federal Reserve and that it already had several major economic fights on its hands, including new tariffs, the people said. The market turmoil made Trump more open to leaving Powell in his position than he would have been a month ago, one of the people said.

"I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates," Trump said Tuesday. "It's a perfect time to lower interest rates. If he doesn't, is it the end? No, it's not, but it would be good timing. It would be.... It could have taken place earlier. But, no, I have no intention to fire him."

But it wasn't just Trump's top economic advisors pushing back. Also on Monday, Trump met with three CEOs who had some brutal predictions for where things were headed, due to Trump's trade war with China:

During a private meeting in the Oval Office on Monday, the CEOs of Walmart, Target and Home Depot reportedly told the president that supply chains could freeze and prompt stores' shelves to go barren if he doesn't reign [sic] in on his sharp tariff plans, and meddles with the Federal Reserve.

"The big box CEOs flat out told him the prices aren't going up, they're steady right now, but they will go up," an administration official familiar with the meeting told Axios. "And this wasn't about food. But he was told that shelves will be empty."

According to a separate official briefed on the meeting, Trump was told that if he doesn't change course, the impact could be noticeable in as little as two weeks.

The CEOs words seemed to have some sway on the president.

The following day, Trump told reporters that tariffs on China will "come down substantially" from his previously announced 145% rate.

A longer version of what Trump actually said: "145% is very high, and it won't be that high. It won't be anywhere near that high... It will come down substantially, but it won't be zero."

According to some media reports, the administration is considering dropping the tariff rate by between 50 and 65 percent, which would be a major reduction. Others predict it could even drop by half.

Trump's got a big problem with his China trade war, and the problem is they're not backing down. China has plenty of (as Trump likes to put it) "cards to play," and China was singled out by Trump to be the big center-ring fight in his trade war. He wanted to see China cower and come to him with hat in hand, begging for a trade deal. This has not happened. Instead, they hiked their own tariffs on U.S. goods to 125 percent and called Trump's bluff. China knows full well that political pressure is a very potent thing in America, whereas that is not remotely as true in China. This means they can weather the storm a lot easier than Trump can. Which the CEOs must have explained to Trump in that meeting.

Trump continues his bluster, as the White House now insists that America will not "unilaterally" reduce their tariffs. Meaning China would have to make a move as well, probably in some good-faith effort as talks for a trade deal begin between the two countries. But by doing so, Trump is projecting weakness in a big way. He's all but admitting the trade war is going to hurt America first, not China. This will give China the upper hand in any negotiations.

Trump thought he could force China to the bargaining table. Obviously, he was wrong about that. He fully expected China to beg him to reduce his tariffs. They haven't. Up until now, big corporations haven't been hit too hard because they all stocked up on everything before the tariffs hit. But those stockpiles are now dwindling. So Trump faces the prospect -- within weeks -- of shelves at the big stores being empty. How will that play on the evening news? Trump's approval ratings on the economy are already tanking, and seeing empty shelves on the nightly news is only going to accelerate that trend in a big way.

So he blinked. Just like he blinked on the idea of firing Powell.

Both of which are good things, of course. But the best thing is seeing proof that there still are a few "adults in the room" who can talk Trump down from the brink, by explaining to him that it's all going to blow up in his face very soon now. At the very least, it's good to know that the groundhog can actually still be influenced by reality, instead of him seeing his shadow being a purely random event.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant