Hey, kiddies, it's time to play "shadow boxing with Joe Manchin" once again! Yes, his teasing game has begun anew, where Democrats get their hopes up that Senator Manchin will finally agree to pass something -- anything -- from President Joe Biden's agenda, in the hopes of counteracting the predicted coming "red wave" in November's midterm elections. Once again, Manchin is playing it coy, as he is "in negotiations" with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, but has not actually committed to much of anything. The deadline this time around is the end of July, right before all of Congress disappears into the summer breeze for an entire month. Of course, they're all still on their two-week July 4th vacation this week, so nothing will really happen until next week, which leaves a rather abbreviated window.

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Control of the United States Senate will be one of the biggest political prizes fought over in the 2022 midterm elections this November. So far, out of all the 2022 Senate races, Democrats look fairly well positioned to either hold onto their thin majority or perhaps even expand it by one or two. In what is supposed to be a very Republican-friendly year, the GOP's chances of taking the Senate seem dimmer than ever. This is due to one very big reason: personality matters. The quality of the candidates matter.

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Let's begin with a big "Happy Independence Day, everyone!"

This July Fourth it is tempting for progressives and all others who care about basic human rights to want to declare independence from the Supreme Court. Packed with radicals, it has begun what could be a terrifying reign over American life for decades to come. Who knows what laws they will target next? The basic understanding that whichever candidate gets the most votes wins an election, perhaps? The possibilities are frightening.

But there is a way to completely defang the Supreme Court, and one that would be far easier to accomplish than, say, increasing the membership of the court. "Court-packing" has all kinds of historical baggage, and to flip the court Democrats would have to appoint four more justices -- which would seem like too radical a step for many. But there's another way Congress could completely strip the court of the power of interfering with basic human rights, and it is built right in to the Constitution itself.

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The two biggest political topics of the past week were the continuing outrages piling up from both the Supreme Court and the House Select Committee on January 6th.

On Tuesday, a young aide who worked for Trump's chief of staff, Mark Meadows, appeared in a surprise House committee hearing. The previous week, the committee had let it be known that there would be no hearings over the two-week Independence Day break. But a day beforehand, a new hearing was announced without fanfare and without any details.

The witness who appeared, Cassidy Hutchinson, had apparently been getting threatening messages from those still surrounding Donald Trump. They read like mob bosses leaning on a witness who might spill the beans:

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This month has been a monumental one in politics, containing several far-reaching Supreme Court decisions and the January 6th committee hearings. While it is too soon to tell, all of this may have shifted things in Democrats' favor heading into the midterm congressional elections. Democratic voters are a lot more engaged and motivated to vote, while Republicans are losing ground. Whether this proves to be enough to counteract the expected "red wave" in November is still a very open question, but it is clear that the shift has so far favored the Democrats.

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There is a nationwide audience for the revelations that keeping coming forth from the House Select Committee on January 6th, but the most important audience these hearings really have is Attorney General Merrick Garland (and all the people in the Department of Justice who have also been investigating the insurrection attempt). What will Garland do when the hearings conclude and (a few months later) when the committee's final report is publicly issued?

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Donald Trump, when he was president, was mocked in many ways. The most amusing of all, though, was the giant balloon someone created of Trump caricatured as a baby, in diapers, clutching a cell phone in one of his tiny hands.

Today's hearing in front of the House Select Committee on January 6th proved beyond a shadow of a doubt what most observant people had already realized: Donald Trump was indeed nothing but a big baby. He is a man-child whose mental age seems stuck somewhere between two years old and perhaps five. He throws tantrums. He throws his own food. He cares about nothing but satisfying his own warped urges. His biggest concern on January 6th was that the crowd size of his rally looked impressive on television. He continually harps on this, speaking just this week about his crowd that day as (of course) the biggest, hugest crowd ever to assemble. It's all about Donald Trump's ego, and it always has been.

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Rarely do I sit down and write a column just to proclaim my abject ignorance about a political subject, but today seems an appropriate day to do so -- to make a larger point about pundits everywhere: nobody knows this right now. Nobody. Don't believe them if they tell you they do, because we are truly in uncharted territory.

The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade was always going to have an impact on the upcoming election. I've been saying that pretty much ever since they heard the case, months ago. It became patently obvious when the draft decision was leaked. But still it seemed to catch some by surprise. The real unanswerable questions here are: How much impact will it have on the election? And which party will benefit?

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Barack Obama created many memorable soundbites and campaign slogans, but one of the best-remembered is (as he phrased it in a tweet): "There are no red states or blue states, just the United States." This call for unity in politics was generally well-received, since it spoke to (as another former president once put it) "the better angels of our nature."

But what is becoming more and more obvious is how wrong Obama got this. His words sound blissfully naive, at this point. Because we are devolving further into the Divided States of America, seemingly with every passing day. Today's Supreme Court decision which overturned Roe v. Wade is merely another milestone on this grim journey.

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Today saw the final June hearing of the House Select Committee on January 6th. Next week, Congress scarpers off on one of their many two-week holiday breaks, ostensibly for the July 4th holiday, so we won't be getting another of these hearings until the week of July 11th, at the earliest. But the committee does indeed plan to hold more public hearings, although they continue to hold their cards very close to the vest on exactly how many such hearings will take place, as well as the subject of any of the upcoming hearings. Perhaps this is done to build tension and interest among the public, or perhaps it is just because they are now reportedly being flooded with new information and new testimony, all offered up since the beginning of the public hearings earlier this month.

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