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Senate
Close races:
Democrats win:
Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington.
Republicans win:
Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.
Total:
Democrats -- 51
Republicans -- 49
When immigrants are used as scapegoats to win elections, however, they remember it. When they vote -- even years later -- they are inclined to vote against the party that used such tactics.
Finally, there's my favorite choice for a Democratic candidate: Al Franken. Anyone who has seen Robin Williams' new movie Man of the Year is already considering the question: could a comedian win the Presidency? Well... maybe, maybe not. But Franken has set his sights a little lower, publicly discussing how he's positioning himself for a Senate run from Minnesota in 2008. I truly think he could win, and I would love to see Senator Franken in action. C-SPAN meets Comedy Central!
Because he's good enough, he's smart enough, and doggone it, people like him.
Democrats would strongly promise that immediately after the election they will send a delegation to the White House (from their newly-won congressional majorities) to sit down and create an exit strategy for Iraq; one that "saves face" for America -- and for Bush. Promise that all meetings will be absolutely closed-door, with no leaks. Furthermore, promise that all credit for the plan will be equally shared between Bush and Democrats (this is key). Promise that before the end of 100 days, a plan for moving forward will emerge. By doing this, Democrats would be seen by the electorate as actually being stronger on national defense than Republicans -- just by admitting that something needs to be done.
I don't admire Reagan for much, but I have to admit he perfected the "brush-off" answer. He often did it with humor, he did it sometimes by being insufferably glib or patronizing -- but the result was the same, no matter how he pulled it off: whatever question he was responding to would never be asked again. One of many examples was when his advanced age was seen as an issue in the 1984 campaign, and he quipped during a debate: "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." It got a big laugh. And he got re-elected as the oldest President ever. This is a valuable political trait which earned Reagan the "Teflon" title, and it's a shame the Democrats can't seem to master it.
(10) National emergency declared (for some reason or another), midterm elections cancelled. Attorney General Gonzales, backed by the Supreme Court, announces that all congressional elections are null and void, as the President as Unitary Executive (all praise His Name) will be dictating who will be allowed to serve in Congress, due to a Presidential signing statement that, unfortunately, you can't read (for reasons of national security, and the fact that we're at war, dammit); and due to the Omniscient Power of Our Fearless Leader George W. Bush -- long may His Holy Name be revered by the loving populace. Odds: too scary to compute
"On Planet Republican, the Iraq war is in its 'last throes'... meanwhile back on Earth, the insurgency is on the brink of full-scale civil war."
"Five years ago, on Planet Republican, George Bush said he'd get Osama Bin Laden 'dead or alive'... but it took Democrats in Congress to bring him back to Earth and force him not to disband the CIA's Bin Laden unit."
There must be a final word of caution here. When playing sneaky politics, it's always a good idea to watch your back. Joe Lieberman has already proven twice that he puts his own personal ambition ahead of the interests of the party.
It's really a lose-lose situation for the Republicans all around, which is why it's the second most amusing race this year to watch (the prize belongs, of course, to the Katherine Harris circus down in Florida).
