Out of the frozen tundra of Iowa, out of the snowy mountains of Vermont, out of the brightly-lit casinos in the Nevada desert, out of the churches of South Carolina... campaign '08 comes barreling down towards Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday like a cheetah on steroids. But I'd like to pause here for a moment, take a deep breath, and look at the 2008 election's "big picture" -- where we've been, where we are, and how we got here.

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I do wonder at the stunning political tactics it must have taken to get Sebelius selected to give the speech, though. She must have been sold as a successful Democratic politician from a red state, and her speech must have been sold to the party leadership as a "let's work together and get something done" speech. But the speech she actually gave could easily have been given by Obama himself. It was entirely in tune with Obama's campaign slogans and strategy, and then the day after giving the speech she endorses Obama publicly. That's quite a coup for Barack, and shows that maybe he knows more about manipulating the levers of political power in Washington than most give him credit for. In the midst of a tight primary race, a week before Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday, Barack gets his own supporter to give a speech that an enormous number of Americans are watching. That's impressive, and I bet the Clinton camp is seething today over being outmaneuvered in such a crafty way.

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Ever onwards, into the fray, we return to the latest in a series of primary "picks" columns, this time heading down to Florida to examine the Republican race. I refuse to write any Democratic picks, since they're supposed to be in the penalty box for moving their primary up sooner than February 5th. So this week, it's GOP-only.

Which is probably a good thing, since my track record on the Republican side is a lot better than my total for Democrats. I seem to be able to be more objective on the Republicans, and more biased on the Democratic side, so make of that what you will.

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Netizens, fellow bloggers, Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Reid, Members of Congress, Supreme Court Justices, and all Americans... I am proud to stand before you and say... the state of the weblog is strong!

Blogging, for instance, means you can put your own comments out there before President Bush gives his final State of the Union speech next Monday. This is a good thing for our blogosphere!

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John Edwards today came out strongly in support of Chris Dodd's fight against Harry Reid in the Senate over giving telecommunications companies immunity for breaking the wiretapping laws. To be fair, Dodd is the one leading on the issue, but he has dropped out of the race for president, so he deserves the leadership honors on the issue. But among the three leading candidates for the Democratic nomination, only Edwards is even speaking about the issue. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as of this writing, don't have any press releases up on their web pages on the issue, one way or the other. Both of them are out on the campaign trail rather than in the Senate to cast votes on the issue.

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Either Karl Rove has joined the Clinton campaign as their advisor, or somebody over there has learned a lot from his standard campaign playbook. Because they're successfully using Rove's signature (and quite bizarrely effective) political tactic: attack your opponent not on his weak points, but on your weak points. This throws your opponent on defense, when he should be strongly playing offense.

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To me, this seems an obvious answer to an unprecedented problem -- what is a former president going to do as First Husband? You can bet he'll be eager to help out in any fashion Hillary allows him to, and his wealth of experience and knowledge would be an asset to pretty much anything he does to help his wife. He's still popular within the party, and he's going to have an influence on his wife's administration whether he's in an official position or not. So what to do with him?

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I apologize in advance for the disjointed nature of this week's column. There are a lot of odds and ends to cover, including tomorrow's primary picks, a cartoon, and the usual awards and talking points.

But the first of these ends is definitely odd: is it just my imagination, or did Charles Krauthammer (of all people) read my earlier column before writing his own? You be the judge.

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So. The question is: will Hillary Clinton and/or Barack Obama stand up for Dodd? Will they filibuster right alongside him? Will they show leadership within their own party (all the players except Bush in this fight are Democrats)? Or will they wait until they see which way the political winds are blowing and sneak in during the last minutes of a roll call to cast a "safe" vote? Hillary? Do you support telecom immunity for illegally wiretapping American citizens? How about you, Barack? Do you support this? You are both still in the Senate.

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Think about it -- the issue is that King needed Johnson's help in getting a law passed. Well, why did he need this help? Why couldn't King's "dream" become a "reality" without Johnson's help? Because in the 1960s there is no possibility whatsoever that a black man could have been president. Again, think about it -- if King had been president himself, he sure wouldn't have needed LBJ's help.

This is historical fact. We've come a long way since those days. But nobody is pointing out that it is now 2008, and not 1964. The big difference (as it relates to this argument) between then and now is that now we have a black man who has a very good chance at actually becoming president on his own.

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