The White House has just given everyone a peek at what President Obama's next budget proposal is going to look like. Full details aren't yet available and likely won't be until next month, when Obama's budget is officially released. What is known, at this point, is that the White House is signaling that the attempt to reach out to Republicans and meet them halfway in some "grand bargain" on the budget is officially over, at least for the time being. Specifically, Obama has dropped his "chained C.P.I." idea. What this is going to mean for the rest of the year is likely "not much," at least outside the realm of politicking. It is, after all, an election year. But Obama is sending a strong message to Democrats that he won't be "giving away the store" in any budget agreements this year, which comes as a relief to many Democrats.

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Marijuana is in the news today, as the Coalition for Cannabis Policy Reform (the best-financed advocacy group in California) have stated that they will not, after all, be moving forward with a ballot initiative in 2014 to legalize recreational use of marijuana. After considering their ballot measure's chances (the "Control, Regulate and Tax Marijuana Act"), the group has decided to wait until 2016 to move forward. This may come as a blow to California marijuana supporters, but in the long run it may have been the smart thing to do. Waiting another two years isn't a welcome prospect to many, but it may produce a better law and broader public support in the end.

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The Congressional Budget Office just put out a report on what effects raising the minimum wage might have on the American economy. The Washington Post has a pretty good rundown (complete with charts and excerpts from the report), which does a good job showing what the C.B.O. numbers really are, and what they predict. One of these numbers in particular is getting most of the attention, but we're going to largely avoid the debate over the numbers themselves and instead focus in on what this report is going to mean politically for both sides in the debate.

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John Boehner has a song in his heart. That song is "Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah," which he was heard quoting from as he was busy passing a clean debt ceiling bill in his House. He followed up with another lyric from the tune: "Plenty of sunshine coming my way." Mr. Boehner is, of course, being amusingly ironic. He does not, in fact, have a song in his heart, and he is not looking for beams of sunshine heading his way from his fellow Republicans.

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I'm going to ignore the main "will he or won't he" question for the time being, and instead concentrate on a wonkier subject: "when will he, if he does?" This stems from a piece of conventional Washington wisdom (which, I might add, I usually treat very gingerly, and always wash my hands afterwards) -- that John Boehner is waiting to introduce immigration reform until after the season of filing deadlines for the primary elections, to avoid Republican House members facing primary challenges from Tea Partiers. This qualifies as Washington conventional wisdom because the notion is being bandied about by both Lefties and Righties. Democrats and Republicans (those who want to see something done on immigration) agree that Boehner is just waiting for this magic window, while Republicans against immigration reform are using the same idea as a dire warning (mostly to spur fundraising). But has anyone really examined the primary schedule? Because it is a lot more spread out than might be expected. So the question becomes: does this window even really exist?

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The official numbers are in for January, showing that Obamacare signups beat the monthly projection for the first time. This is good news for the White House, as is the new overall signup total of 3.3 million. After a very rocky rollout, the Obamacare website seems to now be back on track. The numbers are good, but they will likely fall short of the overall goal of seven million signed up by the deadline, currently set for the end of March. This will leave the White House with a rather obvious path to make up the difference: slip the individual mandate deadline by one month, to the end of April. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Obama chooses this route, likely in the middle of next month.

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Last week, John Boehner made a rather stunning turnaround on whether the House will be passing some sort of immigration reform this year. To be snide: first he was for it, before he was against it. What happened in between (one assumes) is that he tried to sell the idea to his own caucus. Who (from all appearances) wasn't buying it. While this might not be the end for immigration reform this year, the idea certainly can now be said to be on life support, at best. What this means for the future of immigration reform is anybody's guess at this point, so I thought I'd map out a few scenarios which assume immigration reform is not going to pass before this year's elections.

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Americans across the land are banding together to solve one of the country's most pressing problems, it seems: demanding that Justin Bieber be deported!

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If you buy car insurance and then get into an accident, when the insurance pays for your repairs, have they "bailed you out"? Most people would answer "no," because planning for risks in advance by buying insurance is a responsible thing to do. There is no "bailout" involved at all. But that's the basic concept Republicans are planning on selling, if today's rumors are to be believed.

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Republicans in the House have announced they are now ready to do something on immigration. I only mention this in passing here, because the entire talking points section is going to be devoted to a warning for Democrats: there will be traps laid by the Republicans, so Democrats have to be vigilant about defusing each one as it pops up.

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