Is America headed for a "Trump recession" already? Economists are starting to get worried. So are consumers. And the stock market has been in a deep dive ever since the tariff threat became real this week. So the possibility now exists -- we could be headed for an economic trainwreck. And if it happens, there will be a big difference from normal business-cycle recessions, because this time the reason why it happened will be pretty obvious to everyone.

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I have to begin this review with the mandatory bit of pedantry which is required every four years. Last night, President Donald Trump gave a speech to a joint session of Congress. However, it was not technically a "State Of The Union" speech, since tradition dictates you have to have been in office for a whole year before giving one of those.

Nitpickery aside, let's do a quick review of how things went last night, shall we?

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It is time for Democrats to step up to the plate. President Donald Trump will address Congress and the nation tonight, and will doubtlessly boast about all the wonderful things he thinks he has been doing. In doing so, he will also doubtlessly lie about many of them in shameless fashion, since that's what he always does. But Democrats need to not get distracted and remain focused on one thing above all else. Call it a return to: "It's the economy, stupid."

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So is everyone ready to pay more for stuff? Because that certainly seems like what is next on the agenda for the American consumer. We'll be paying more for food in the grocery store, more for electronic goods, and a whole bunch more for cars, starting tomorrow.

Or maybe not. You never know what's going to happen, since American trade policy will now be decided on a whim. By a man who simply does not understand how world trade works. Isn't that a comforting thought?

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The first month of the second presidency of Donald Trump is now over. Only forty-seven more to go!

That, of course, is a daunting prospect, but we can at least open with some good news this week: Trump is already wearing out his welcome with the public. The presidential "honeymoon" period is apparently over (almost before it began). Trump started off his second term with historically dismal ratings, although they did best one previous president -- himself, in his first term. His job approval numbers were actually at 50 percent or just above when he was sworn in this time around (which, as mentioned, every other modern president has beaten), so he could at least claim a majority of the public was behind him. Not any more.

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Donald Trump is now officially one month into his second term as president. And already, his "honeymoon" period seems to be ending. Most incoming presidents get at least a few months where the public essentially gives them the benefit of the doubt and approves of the job they're doing. But then at some point, this wears off and their job approval polling noticeably falls back. And some of the polls released recently show that this may already be happening with Trump.

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We aren't even three weeks in to the administration of President Elon Musk, and already he has instituted an ideological purge the likes of which America has not seen since the time of Senator Joe McCarthy. Except this time they're not rooting out communists (or suspected communists, or communist sympathizers) but instead just "people they don't like." Or maybe "people who have pissed off Elon" -- that's probably closer to the reality of it.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio made his first visit abroad this week. He went to Panama and reportedly pushed them to do something about the Panama Canal, in order to somehow appease President Trump's obsession with it. So far, they've refused to do so. Perhaps this is all just as performative as Trump's now-you-see-it-now-you-don't tariffs on Canada and Mexico -- perhaps Trump will find some way to declare victory and move on to other strange obsessions. Panama could, for instance, slightly lower the rates for ships to pass through their canal, either just for American ships or for all ships. That would probably be enough for Trump to move on.

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We begin today with an apology and a solicitation for donations. Our apology is for perhaps not doing as thorough a job of reviewing the past week as we normally do, because last night instead of doing our homework we instead watched the FireAid benefit concert for the victims of the recent Los Angeles fires. If you missed it, at least check out the fireaidla.org site, where you can donate to the cause if you wish. It was quite a show, and well worth watching (note: this review contains only a partial list of the performers...):

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And so we come to the final Friday Talking Points of President Joe Biden's term in office.

It is perhaps appropriate that the funeral of Jimmy Carter happened in the midst of Biden winding down his final weeks. Because Joe Biden -- another one-term Democratic president like Jimmy -- will likely become more appreciated as time goes by, just as Carter was.

Joe Biden had a pretty spectacular first two years in office, in terms of getting legislation passed. Granted, he had a Democratic Congress to work with and the continuing crisis of a pandemic to spur the politicians to actually act. He used both to get a sweeping agenda passed which will have an impact for years to come. But he had to grapple with two corporate-friendly Democrats in the Senate who held him back from achieving an even-more-historic agenda. If the full "Build Back Better" plan had made it past Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, then Americans would doubtlessly feel a lot differently (and better) about government's role in their economic lives.

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