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James Carville's famous political maxim ("It's the economy, stupid") needs updating. As we all ride out the Trump Slump in various ways, what we've got now is: "It's the stupid economy." The people running things are stupid. They are making stupid decisions. They have no clue whatsoever what they are doing, and it shows. Stupid is as stupid does. Welcome to The Stupid Economy, folks.
What exactly is the point of the Trump trade war? Asking this question to different people in the White House gets you different answers, and Trump himself (as usual) contradicts himself almost daily, attempting to have things both ways. The clueless nature of the entire exercise is becoming more and more apparent as the first week of the Trump trade war draws to a close.
So, does everyone feel wonderfully "liberated" now?
President Donald Trump, in his second term, decided to liberate himself from having any adults in the room when he made important decisions. Instead, he surrounded himself with ass-kissers and other assorted sycophants, all of whom tell him he is great no matter what crazy notion pops into his head.
This is the result. Yesterday, the Dow Jones average lost 1,600 points. Today it lost another 2,200 points. Trump has singlehandedly crashed the economy -- and we're only two days in.
There is no shortage of colorful language (and memes!) being used today to describe the new Trump Tax we're all about to pay -- after having been "liberated" from, y'know, paying less money for stuff. I chose the term financial pundit Ross Gerber used to describe it for the headline, as it seemed the most descriptive:
So... is everyone ready to pay more for everything? Because that's why America elected Donald Trump president, right?
On Wednesday, Trump will be announcing sweeping tariffs on the entire rest of the world. As he likes to put it, "tariff" is his new favorite word in the dictionary. But consumers are likely to call it what it will actually be, to them: a tax. A big fat "Trump Tax" on all sorts of things consumers buy. Which will likely drive up inflation, and which will definitely hit consumers hard in the pocketbook.
In keeping with the "world turned upside-down" nature of this week, we are going to start with a few things that haven't been front-and-center, then we'll circle in to a bigger-picture take, and finally we'll fit in the big story of the week at the end.
President Elon Musk and his figurehead Donald Trump inched closer to a constitutional crisis (once again) last week. It still hasn't been fully resolved, so we've all got more of this to look forward to next week as well.
Trump invoked a law from the 1700s this week which would allow him personally to determine who gets deported. No due process, no hearing before a judge -- none of that. Just Trump deciding: "I don't like this guy, let's kick him out." The Alien Enemies Act is only supposed to apply when the United States is at war with another nation, and has only been used three times -- the most recent being the shameful internment of Japanese-Americans during World War II. But as far as Trump is concerned, it doesn't matter than we aren't at war, he just doesn't want to deal with the courts at all.
As is now the new normal, there were so many things happening in the political world this week it is hard to keep track of them all. But what is currently in the center ring is the vote happening in the Senate on the continuing resolution to fund the government for the rest of this fiscal year.
While the biggest political spectacle of the week was the president's big speech to Congress, the biggest political news of the week was actually the American economy reacting to Donald Trump's on-again-off-again, now-you-see-them-now-you-don't tariffs. The whiplash began at the start of the week and hasn't fully subsided yet. Taken together with all of Trump's other disruptive wrecking balls, economists are now starting to talk about the possibility of an upcoming "Trump recession."
Is America headed for a "Trump recession" already? Economists are starting to get worried. So are consumers. And the stock market has been in a deep dive ever since the tariff threat became real this week. So the possibility now exists -- we could be headed for an economic trainwreck. And if it happens, there will be a big difference from normal business-cycle recessions, because this time the reason why it happened will be pretty obvious to everyone.