...I have to say that the credit for the presentation of the convention has to be split between the Clintons and Barack's campaign team. Each has proven what a great job of defying the media expectations Democrats can (at times) manage to do. For the first two days, the media kept beating the "Hillary people are going to show a divided party" drum, and it never happened. What was the overwhelming image out of the convention so far? Party unity. This would only increase on the next night, but I'm separating these into separate posts, so I'll get to that in a little bit here. For now, I had to give credit to one talking head (I forget who it was, it may have been Bob Schieffer on CBS) who, obviously speaking without a script, said immediately after Hillary's speech something along the lines of: "Well, we've all be telling the story of how divided the Democrats are, but we were wrong. They are united." I didn't write down the exact words, but to me it was a stunning admission of journalistic failure -- for almost everyone in the media. They really, really wanted a fight. They didn't get one. Too bad. One would like to hope that now their media narrative will pivot on a dime into "It's astonishing how united the Democratic Party has become," but (as always when expecting things from the media) I'm not going to hold my breath or anything.

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...But the kids stole the show. The youngest one, obviously having a ball with her moment on the world stage, in about five seconds became the best thing of the entire night. Who can't resist an adorable girl saying "I love you Daddy!" to her father?

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But I'm certainly not looking this gift horse in the mouth. For weeks now, I have been practically begging someone -- ANYone -- to ask John McCain this exact question: "How many houses do you and your wife own?" Politico finally asked. John McCain blew the answer. Yet another gaffe from McCain, but the difference this time is that the media chose to run with it.

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Thanks to all for playing, and feel free to add more, as it's quite likely some of these winners will be found to have used humor-enhancing substances. Ahem.

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I have to say, I am slowly seeing signs of the media turning on John McCain. Now, so far, it's a fairly subtle thing -- they haven't started asking him any really tough questions on his policy, his history, or his record, for instance. But they have noticed the change in tone since the Karl Rove people have taken over McCain's campaign strategy. And it's turning them off. They are like Rip Van Winkle waking up from a years-long nap, blinking sleepily and confusedly while wondering "Who is this new John McCain? Where's the straight talker I went to sleep dreaming about?"

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So, to be fair, I am running a "halfway mark" check on my 2008 predictions. I wrote this column in mid-December last year. My record is not that good, I have to admit. Although the one about Iraq and the elections has so far turned out uncannily accurate, I have to say. But many of these I just got flat-out wrong. I predicted an extended primary campaign... for the wrong party. I predicted all kinds of wild things which just didn't happen. But, for your amusement, I am running the column in full, complete with my own personal self-grading. (You may want to read the column first, and then come back to this list to see how I marked it.)

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So here is how the 2008 election looked, to me, a year and a half ago. I concentrated mostly on the Senate, and if I were dividing up the races today, obviously I would switch some of these states from one category to another. But I think my final prediction of 57 Democrats (55 Democrats plus two independents who vote with them) to 43 Republicans is still among the most likely outcomes this year. I could be off by one or two, but I bet not much more than that.

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Although the (as he puts it) "Is He Serious?" headlines have mostly come and gone, Al Franken is still Al Franken, and his humorous style is evident throughout the interview. But for all the people who scoffed at the idea of a former comedian running for such a high public office, it can now be strongly stated that Al Franken's campaign is definitely no joke.

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There's a lonely stretch of grassland in Montana, with gently rolling hills next to a small river, where 132 years ago this June, a battle was fought. More on this in a moment.

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August 28th will be the final day of the 2008 Democratic National Convention. The keynote speaker will be the Democratic nominee for president. Unless Hillary Clinton soon acquires the ability to perform miracles, that nominee is going to be Barack Obama.

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