[ Posted Wednesday, September 26th, 2012 – 17:21 UTC ]
While the overall split between the candidates hasn't changed a whole lot since last time, the dynamics of the race underlying the overall numbers has indeed shifted for both candidates. The news was slightly better for each candidate in some regards, and slightly worse in others. All around, Barack Obama is holding onto and improving on his post-convention bounce, and Mitt Romney continues to struggle to make any ground, while slightly strengthening his base.
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[ Posted Monday, September 17th, 2012 – 15:05 UTC ]
The last time we took a look at the electoral math was just before convention season was about to get underway. Since it's now been over a week since the end of the Democratic National Convention, the effects of both parties' conventions are beginning to show up in the state-level polling. The news for the Obama team is good, almost across the board, as Romney showed little or no "bounce" from his convention, while Obama gained a significant bump after the Democrats' big party.
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[ Posted Sunday, September 2nd, 2012 – 17:17 UTC ]
Obama's average monthly job approval rating gained 0.6 percent this month, to finish up at 47.8 percent. His job disapproval rating slightly ticked up 0.2 points, to close at 48.3 percent. This leaves Obama a half a point underwater in the polls -- better than last month's 0.9 percent down.
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[ Posted Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012 – 16:13 UTC ]
As we approach the "convention season" in the race for the presidency, it behooves us to take another look at how the electoral math currently stands. Mitt Romney chose to announce his running mate rather early, which is just beginning to be reflected in the polling. But, starting next week, each party will likely get a noticeable "convention bump" in the polls. Because the two conventions are happening right after one another, this should stir the big data pot well into September. Which is why now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.
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[ Posted Thursday, August 2nd, 2012 – 15:59 UTC ]
Barack Obama's worst time of year is the dog days of summer, and this year is proving no different. He had the worst month, overall, since last August, as his approval rate fell 0.6 percent to end the month at 47.2 percent average approval. His disapproval rate rose 0.3 percent, to end the month at 48.1 percent. This put Obama almost a full point "underwater" -- for the first time since January.
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[ Posted Tuesday, July 3rd, 2012 – 16:27 UTC ]
With that out of the way, let's take a look at how Barack Obama is doing in the job approval category. For the first time ever, we have an exact tie, at 47.8 percent. Here's the chart:
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[ Posted Monday, June 25th, 2012 – 17:11 UTC ]
It's time once again to begin seriously taking a look at the electoral math for the upcoming election. I know, I know, everyone else is court-watching this week, but instead I decided to spend some time poll-watching, for those of you who may be getting tired of endless Supreme Court speculation and analysis.
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[ Posted Monday, June 4th, 2012 – 12:54 UTC ]
May was not all that exceptional a month for Barack Obama, poll-wise. Both approval and disapproval rates were up slightly, but not significantly. It is a bit odd to have both numbers increase within the same month, but this is mostly due to the fact that the numbers themselves are so close to being even (statistically, this does odd things right around the point where they perfectly balance).
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[ Posted Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012 – 15:04 UTC ]
President Barack Obama had another uneventful month in the polls last month. I realize that's a pretty dull way to start a column, but we do the best with the data we are given, so to speak. Obama's average approval rate and disapproval rate both got better by the slimmest of margins -- one-tenth of a point -- which places him pretty much where he ended the past two months. His approval rating stayed above his disapproval rating, but by a margin of less than a full percentage point.
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[ Posted Monday, April 2nd, 2012 – 15:30 UTC ]
President Obama had a fairly flat month of March in the polls. His approval rating slipped back a half a point, and his disapproval rating stayed unchanged from last month. While his approval stayed above his disapproval for the month, the gap between the two is smaller than it's ever been. All month long he teetered back and forth in terms of being "above water" but showed signs of at least stabilizing by month's end. This brought an end to five straight months of good news in the polls for the president, the longest streak he's ever managed to post.
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