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As is now the new normal, there were so many things happening in the political world this week it is hard to keep track of them all. But what is currently in the center ring is the vote happening in the Senate on the continuing resolution to fund the government for the rest of this fiscal year.
While the biggest political spectacle of the week was the president's big speech to Congress, the biggest political news of the week was actually the American economy reacting to Donald Trump's on-again-off-again, now-you-see-them-now-you-don't tariffs. The whiplash began at the start of the week and hasn't fully subsided yet. Taken together with all of Trump's other disruptive wrecking balls, economists are now starting to talk about the possibility of an upcoming "Trump recession."
Is America headed for a "Trump recession" already? Economists are starting to get worried. So are consumers. And the stock market has been in a deep dive ever since the tariff threat became real this week. So the possibility now exists -- we could be headed for an economic trainwreck. And if it happens, there will be a big difference from normal business-cycle recessions, because this time the reason why it happened will be pretty obvious to everyone.
So is everyone ready to pay more for stuff? Because that certainly seems like what is next on the agenda for the American consumer. We'll be paying more for food in the grocery store, more for electronic goods, and a whole bunch more for cars, starting tomorrow.
Or maybe not. You never know what's going to happen, since American trade policy will now be decided on a whim. By a man who simply does not understand how world trade works. Isn't that a comforting thought?
Remember when the Republican Party, as a whole, absolutely revered the memory of Ronald Reagan? It really wasn't that long ago. Their devotion was so pronounced that we even took to using the term "Saint Ronald of Reagan" whenever we wrote about Republicans lauding him to the skies, just to poke fun at their deification (or at the least, canonization or beatification) of a politician that, in our humble opinion, really didn't deserve such devotion.
Jumping forward to the present, each incoming president gets to choose how to decorate the White House, which includes the art on the walls of the Oval Office. We have to say it was somewhat of a surprise to learn that Donald Trump in his second presidency chose to hang a painting of Reagan on the wall overlooking the same desk Ronnie used to sit behind. We learned this fact from the following article, which (please note) was written before what just happened in the Oval Office today:
The House Republicans just -- stunningly and amazingly -- actually did something. I know! You could've knocked me over with a feather....
I start with such snark because it seems entirely appropriate. But this is rather big news, as what it truly means is that the Republican House cats have now (for once) been successfully herded. This really is a big deal, since it hasn't happened much at all in the past decade or so.
The way things usually go in the GOP House is that they attempt to pass a bill (usually a budget, since that's about all they're capable of paying attention to) but their slim majority in the chamber means that their speaker cannot convince enough of them to vote for it, and so it dies. This usually leads to negotiations with Democrats and kicking the can down the road once again (it can also lead to a new Republican speaker, as we've seen before).
Republicans in Congress are running out of time. The federal government's budget turns into a pumpkin in mid-March, so if a new budget bill isn't passed by then, the government will shut down. And while President Elon Musk's chainsaw approach to slashing spending and personnel is getting most of the attention, what Congress does is likely to have a much deeper impact. This budget battle will also provide an opportunity for Democrats to make the case that Republican "populism" was never more than a mirage (or a lie) to begin with.
The first month of the second presidency of Donald Trump is now over. Only forty-seven more to go!
That, of course, is a daunting prospect, but we can at least open with some good news this week: Trump is already wearing out his welcome with the public. The presidential "honeymoon" period is apparently over (almost before it began). Trump started off his second term with historically dismal ratings, although they did best one previous president -- himself, in his first term. His job approval numbers were actually at 50 percent or just above when he was sworn in this time around (which, as mentioned, every other modern president has beaten), so he could at least claim a majority of the public was behind him. Not any more.
Donald Trump is now officially one month into his second term as president. And already, his "honeymoon" period seems to be ending. Most incoming presidents get at least a few months where the public essentially gives them the benefit of the doubt and approves of the job they're doing. But then at some point, this wears off and their job approval polling noticeably falls back. And some of the polls released recently show that this may already be happening with Trump.
We begin today with an apology and a solicitation for donations. Our apology is for perhaps not doing as thorough a job of reviewing the past week as we normally do, because last night instead of doing our homework we instead watched the FireAid benefit concert for the victims of the recent Los Angeles fires. If you missed it, at least check out the fireaidla.org site, where you can donate to the cause if you wish. It was quite a show, and well worth watching (note: this review contains only a partial list of the performers...):