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While I do realize that a very entertaining playground fight between the world's most prominent schoolboys is currently raging, I am going to exercise a monumental amount of restraint and not address the dustup between Elon Musk and Donald Trump today. Besides, by tomorrow, there'll probably be several more amusing developments to talk about, right?
So there's a public gathering in Washington this week that aims to fix what's wrong with the Democratic Party. It is called "WelcomeFest" and is yet another effort to make the party "more moderate" (they talk of being "partisan centrists"), while admittedly trying to emulate the amount of energy from the progressive side of the party. One of the founders of the "Welcome Party" summed this up: "We respect the very robust and multifaceted effort on the progressive faction of the party over the last few years. They had a lot of clear coherency behind it, and there was a lot of action. We are essentially just trying to emulate that faction of the party." However, one has to wonder what they really mean when they talk of being centrists and moderates, since the lion's share of the funding behind the effort comes from Democratic deep-pocket donors, instead of being supported by any sort of authentic grassroots effort.
Elon Musk is back in the news. He's upset over the Republican budget bill and he's having a hissy fit about it online. Musk seems destined to lose this battle, since by coming out against the bill he set himself at odds with Donald Trump -- and Trump is a lot more popular with the Republican base than Musk. On the other hand, Musk has an almost unlimited amount of money and he's quite willing to toss millions at political causes when he feels like it. So it's tough to really predict how any of this is going to play out.
This week, Wall Street figured out something about Donald Trump (that Vladimir Putin has known for quite a while now) and gave it a catchy name: "TACO." This stands for: "Trump Always Chickens Out."
There are two basic ways to successfully deal with a bully: you can stand up to him, or you can laugh at him. Wall Street is apparently now taking the second route, as traders openly ridicule Donald Trump.
There's a new acronym making the rounds on Wall Street: "TACO," or (more specifically) the "TACO trade." It stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," and it refers to the resilience of the markets after a cycle which is becoming more frequent in Trump's tariff war. The cycle starts when Trump, in a fit of pique, announces insanely-high tariffs will be levied. The market then tanks. Trump then backs off and announces he will be "pausing" the tariffs, or severely rolling them back. The market then gains back what it had lost.
Once again, the Republican Party has laid out its real agenda, in the form of a federal budget. And once again, they have proven what their real priorities are: cutting taxes on the wealthiest Americans no matter what -- no matter who has to pay for it, or how.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is trying, once again, to herd his Republican cats. As usual, this comes to the fore in the form of a budget bill. With a razor-thin majority and several competing factions, the question is whether he can assuage all of them enough to drag his bill over the finish line this week before Congress scarpers off on vacation once again.
Donald Trump seems to now be in full retreat on his trade war. Which is good news, since American consumers are the ones who would have paid the price for it all. The strategy for other countries to follow is becoming clear now -- just wait Trump out, and eventually he will cave on his own, due to political and economic pressures increasing on him over time.
This strategy worked wonders for China, as last weekend Trump dropped his tariff levels against the country by a whopping 115 percentage points. This was precisely what China had been demanding he do before any trade negotiations could even begin. All they had to do was wait.
Will Democrats have an opening to pick up a Senate seat next year... in Texas? Personally, I have to remain skeptical, since Texas has long been the source of perennial disappointment for Democrats who have the dream of "flipping Texas blue." It's an enticing dream, to be sure, because Texas would be incredibly pivotal in electing a Democrat back into the White House. Flipping Texas blue in the Electoral College would make it practically impossible for a Republican to put together the 270 votes needed to become president. But flipping it blue even in a Senate race (or a governor's race, for that matter) has not happened yet, despite several exciting campaigns and lots of money donated to the cause. After all, even Ted Cruz -- one of the most-disliked senators around -- managed to win re-election. So it's a stretch, at best, to imagine John Cornyn being defeated by a Democrat next year.
What would you think if an arsonist set fire to your house, waited until the flames were causing major damage, and then rushed in and put (most of) the fire out? Would you thank the arsonist for saving your house, or would you be angry with him for starting the fire in the first place? Would you look around your home, now drenched in water and with some spots still smoldering and burning, and be thankful? Probably not.