By the time I finish writing this and post it, Donald Trump may have begun speaking to an adoring crowd in Pennsylvania. He is holding a rally there (the first one he's held in quite a while) that will be a de facto kickoff to the Republicans' midterm campaign strategy. Since the party can't run on anything that directly contradicts Trump's positions (because he has such an ideological stranglehold on Republicans), no doubt plenty of GOP politicians will be watching this rally for clues as to what will be acceptable for them to focus on in next year's campaign.

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America heads into this year's holiday season with a cheerful discussion of whether or not we've committed war crimes. Just another random week in the Donald Trump era, folks! Sorry for being snide, but it's hard to juxtapose the whole "peace on Earth" holiday sentiment with the revelations coming from Washington this week.

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This article should really be seen as a continuation to yesterday's article, since all it does is add some specifics to the generalized observations I made yesterday. Because both sides in Congress have made some tangible moves in the debate over extending the Obamacare subsidies (which are set to expire on the first of the year). Senate Democrats have presented their plan, which will get a guaranteed floor vote next week, while a centrist group in the House (with enough Republicans to pass a bill if all Democrats supported it) has come up with their own plan. Meanwhile, Republicans in both the House and the Senate are still dithering about what party-line plan they might put forward. So let's run these down, one by one.

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December is going to be a busy month in the political world. The due date to release the Epstein files falls on the 19th. New official figures -- the first in months -- on the economy (jobs and inflation) will be released two weeks from now. But the biggest story all month is going to be whether Congress is going to extend the Obamacare subsidies or not. Right now, it's not looking especially good, but things can change quickly.

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Today, all eyes in the political world are turning to Tennessee. There's a special election for an open House seat happening today, and it could send shockwaves through Washington no matter who wins the race. If the Democratic candidate wins, it is going to boost Democratic hopes of a "blue wave" election in next year's midterms in a big way, while simultaneously causing deep fear within the Republican Party. If the Republican wins with a small margin of victory, the same thing is going to happen (but in a more subdued way). The only way the election results aren't going to cause a shockwave is if the GOP candidate scores a sweeping victory with at least a double-digit margin.

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It seems that James Carville has seen the light, and as a result he's now channelling his inner Bernie Sanders. In an opinion piece in today's New York Times, Carville calls on Democrats to focus on what he calls "good old-fashioned economic populism, both in message and measure." In some ways, this is Carville circling back to an earlier time for him, since he was the one who came up with the slogan: "It's the economy, stupid" during Bill Clinton's first successful presidential campaign. You might call it Carville's "It's still the economy, stupid" moment.

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The political term for physically-challenged waterfowl has been appearing with increasing regularity in the media this week, to describe the president. But is Donald Trump really a "lame duck" yet? Or is he more of a duck that happened to sprain an ankle or perhaps stub a toe (do ducks technically have ankles... or toes? I must admit, I have no idea...)?

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So the longest federal government shutdown in American history ended last weekend, not with a bang but a whimper. Seven Democrat senators and one Independent voted with the Republicans to reopen the government without securing the goal that Democrats had been fighting for. This has outraged many other Democrats, since it was seen as "pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory," once again.

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Eight Senate Democrats are leading America on a spelunking tour. They desperately point out all the wonderful natural features of the cavern to everyone, as they lead us all lower and lower beneath the ground. However, to the rest of their Democratic colleagues (and millions of Democratic voters), no natural formation or mineral oddity can distract from seeing the truth of the situation as just a handful of weak "moderates" completely caving.

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This week, a major vibe shift took place in American politics. For the first time in an entire year, Democrats got up off the mat. Or maybe: they now have the wind at their backs. There are plenty of other metaphors to choose from, but the reality is that Democrats emerged stronger from the first major election since Donald Trump started his second term, and both Trump and his Republicans emerged weaker.

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