Is America headed for a "Trump recession" already? Economists are starting to get worried. So are consumers. And the stock market has been in a deep dive ever since the tariff threat became real this week. So the possibility now exists -- we could be headed for an economic trainwreck. And if it happens, there will be a big difference from normal business-cycle recessions, because this time the reason why it happened will be pretty obvious to everyone.

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I have to begin this review with the mandatory bit of pedantry which is required every four years. Last night, President Donald Trump gave a speech to a joint session of Congress. However, it was not technically a "State Of The Union" speech, since tradition dictates you have to have been in office for a whole year before giving one of those.

Nitpickery aside, let's do a quick review of how things went last night, shall we?

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It is time for Democrats to step up to the plate. President Donald Trump will address Congress and the nation tonight, and will doubtlessly boast about all the wonderful things he thinks he has been doing. In doing so, he will also doubtlessly lie about many of them in shameless fashion, since that's what he always does. But Democrats need to not get distracted and remain focused on one thing above all else. Call it a return to: "It's the economy, stupid."

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Remember when the Republican Party, as a whole, absolutely revered the memory of Ronald Reagan? It really wasn't that long ago. Their devotion was so pronounced that we even took to using the term "Saint Ronald of Reagan" whenever we wrote about Republicans lauding him to the skies, just to poke fun at their deification (or at the least, canonization or beatification) of a politician that, in our humble opinion, really didn't deserve such devotion.

Jumping forward to the present, each incoming president gets to choose how to decorate the White House, which includes the art on the walls of the Oval Office. We have to say it was somewhat of a surprise to learn that Donald Trump in his second presidency chose to hang a painting of Reagan on the wall overlooking the same desk Ronnie used to sit behind. We learned this fact from the following article, which (please note) was written before what just happened in the Oval Office today:

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I have to begin today with two apologies. The first is for writing about essentially the same subject for three days in a row. I do realize there are plenty of other things going on right now (European leaders visiting the White House, for one), so to focus solely on the budget process in Congress is a bit limiting. My second apology is for misunderstanding something in my last two columns, which is why I'm writing this one (for clarification).

What I got wrong (through a mistaken assumption on my part) is that there are actually two tracks to the budget battles in Congress right now. I have been conflating them into one, but this is not the case. What the House passed this week is a budget framework for the upcoming fiscal year, which won't start until October. It has nothing to do with this fiscal year at all -- that's the second track (that I missed).

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The House Republicans just -- stunningly and amazingly -- actually did something. I know! You could've knocked me over with a feather....

I start with such snark because it seems entirely appropriate. But this is rather big news, as what it truly means is that the Republican House cats have now (for once) been successfully herded. This really is a big deal, since it hasn't happened much at all in the past decade or so.

The way things usually go in the GOP House is that they attempt to pass a bill (usually a budget, since that's about all they're capable of paying attention to) but their slim majority in the chamber means that their speaker cannot convince enough of them to vote for it, and so it dies. This usually leads to negotiations with Democrats and kicking the can down the road once again (it can also lead to a new Republican speaker, as we've seen before).

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I start today with a bit of mineralogical history. The Washington Monument on the National Mall was built both before and after the Civil War, and was finally finished in 1884. At the top of America's obelisk sits a pyramid, with observation windows visitors can look out of. The very tippy-top of this stone pyramid (roughly 555 feet above ground -- at the time, the tallest building in the world) was capped with a small pyramid made out of metal (which doubles as the contact point for the monument's lightning rod). The metal used was one of the rarest available at the time -- so rare that it was as expensive as silver. This small pyramid weighs 100 ounces, and at the time was the largest cast piece of this metal in the world. So what was this extremely rare metal?

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The first month of the second presidency of Donald Trump is now over. Only forty-seven more to go!

That, of course, is a daunting prospect, but we can at least open with some good news this week: Trump is already wearing out his welcome with the public. The presidential "honeymoon" period is apparently over (almost before it began). Trump started off his second term with historically dismal ratings, although they did best one previous president -- himself, in his first term. His job approval numbers were actually at 50 percent or just above when he was sworn in this time around (which, as mentioned, every other modern president has beaten), so he could at least claim a majority of the public was behind him. Not any more.

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Donald Trump is now officially one month into his second term as president. And already, his "honeymoon" period seems to be ending. Most incoming presidents get at least a few months where the public essentially gives them the benefit of the doubt and approves of the job they're doing. But then at some point, this wears off and their job approval polling noticeably falls back. And some of the polls released recently show that this may already be happening with Trump.

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So far, most Republicans have sat back and watched President Elon Musk's bull-in-a-china-shop efforts to fire people and slash budgets with glee. The whole tech-bro "move fast and break things" ideology is just fine with them, as long as the targets are parts of the federal government they have long hated -- like foreign aid or the Department of Education. But now things are about to get a little more personal for them, since the next department on the chopping block is going to be the military. The Washington Post broke the story today of what exactly this is going to mean:

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