Imagine, if you will, if President Joe Biden -- before he dropped his re-election bid -- had held what was billed as a televised town hall in a battleground state. Imagine further that after answering only five questions, Biden's brain seemed to freeze and he just stood there on stage while music played for the remaining 39 minutes of the scheduled event -- as Biden occasionally (and lethargically) moved his hands to the music a bit, but also occasionally just stood there with his eyes closed gripping the back of a chair. Now imagine what the media reaction would have been.

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Three weeks out from Election Day, the presidential race seems to be a complete tossup. There was some movement in the past week's polling, but it was so tiny and incremental it all should really be chalked up as nothing more than statistical noise. The battleground races are so close that they're all teetering ever so slightly between the two candidates, but must really be seen as too close to call, or tied.

To put it another way: this is as close as things can get, folks. There's not a lot you can say in any sort of definitive way other than "the race looks tied." Which is going to make for a shorter-than-average Electoral Math column today.

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The Republican Party is now allergic to the truth. This is what comes from the entire party following, with slavish devotion, a man who lies as easily as he breathes. When Donald Trump was president, the Washington Post counted up over 30,000 lies he told -- an average of 21 per day. Since then, Trump has successfully purged the party of pretty much everyone who has ever disagreed with him on any of them. All that are left are those that are willing to buy into the mindset that reality is what Donald Trump says it is, period. Democrats have been wishing for a while that the Republicans would all wake up one day and return to sanity, but now it's more of a wish that they return to some sort of objective reality -- rather than the Trumpian fantasyland they all now inhabit.

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We are entering the homestretch of the presidential election, and who is going to win is anybody's guess. Polling is no real help since it shows many battleground states either perfectly tied or within a point or two. Both candidates are out there campaigning hard, but neither has a clear edge over the other one. It's going to go right down to the wire, that's about the only thing which seems certain at this point.

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America is about to experience a second large hurricane in a short period of time. Florida is battening down in preparation. Hurricane Milton comes on the heels of Hurricane Helene, which devastated communities all across the South. Mountain towns in Georgia and North Carolina were hit particularly hard. But what is absolutely disgraceful in all of this is the storm of lies that has erupted over the recovery and aid efforts.

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Looking at the presidential polling for the past two weeks, I am reminded of a famous line from Western movies (that has now become a total cliché): "It's quiet out there... too quiet."

Normally, by now I would have started writing one of these columns every week, but I decided not to do so last week because... well... nothing much was really happening in the polls. This week is largely the same, but I'm going to start posting these weekly anyway since we're only four weeks away from Election Day.

Things have barely budged in the past two weeks. In these charts, the lines are almost completely flat. There have been a few (very few) minor wiggles, but for the most part the important trendlines haven't budged in either direction. If the polls turn out to be right, this could wind up being yet another extremely close presidential election, hinging on a few tens of thousands of votes in a few key states.

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The Supreme Court began its new year today. This could wind up being the most consequential term for the high court since they decided Bush v. Gore. Because unless Donald Trump scores a clear win in November -- winning so many of the battleground states that challenging the result would be pointless -- we are likely to see the election results wind up before the Supreme Court in one way or another. Which will give them the power, once again, of determining who will be president for the next four years.

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There were two major events in the presidential race this week, but we are left wondering if either one of them is going to make much of a difference one way or the other. Perhaps we're getting a bit jaded by it all....

The first was the one-and-only vice-presidential debate, held on CBS this Tuesday. Republican JD Vance faced off with Democrat Tim Walz, and it was watched by 43 million people as it aired. The second was the public release of a document prosecutor Jack Smith had previously filed with the court in Donald Trump's January 6th case. It laid out Smith's basic case, in great detail (165 pages' worth).

In a normal campaign season, either one of these would have been impactful, perhaps shifting the polling in significant ways. But in our hunkered-down tribalistic politics, the needle barely quivered. Maybe we're all getting a bit jaded?

There were two other rather large events that could affect politics this week: the massive damage Hurricane Helene did -- especially in the Appalachian Mountain region -- and an East Coast dockworkers' strike. The first shouldn't really have been political, and the second was over almost before anyone was aware it was happening.

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The makeup of next year's incoming Senate is anybody's guess, at this point. Republicans could wind up winning control, Democrats could wind up maintaining their control, and it all might come down to who wins the White House (since the vice president would break a 50-50 tie for control). From the way things look, there are a handful of states which will determine who winds up with a majority.

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After what were arguably the two most consequential presidential debates since at least the Nixon-Kennedy debate (which launched the era of televised debates), last night's vice-presidential debate was pretty... well, normal. It harkened back to the age before Donald Trump entered the political scene, when two candidates would debate political issues without getting overly vicious or personal in their attacks, in the hopes of presenting themselves to the public as acceptable leaders of the country. That was really the striking takeaway from last night -- a return to normalcy, in the midst of yet another Trumpian rollercoaster of a presidential campaign. In fact, this normalcy stuck out as completely abnormal to the bizarre political landscape Trump has dragged us all into for the past nine years.

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