We've all already seen this movie once, so we should kind of know what to expect. And sequels are usually much worse than the original.

Which is why today we're going to devote this column to pondering how bad things could really get in Donald Trump's second term in office (rather than sticking to our normal Friday format). Some things will probably not be as horrifically bad as Democrats now think, some things will indeed be precisely that bad, and some things will be even more horrific than anyone's imagining right now. And my apologies, because this is not an attempt at making a comprehensive list of predictions but rather just free association, what might be called initial thoughts.

As far as he is concerned, Donald Trump now has not only a mandate to do whatever he pleases, but he will also have the power to make it all happen. There will be no guardrails at all. Republicans will control the Senate and most likely the House as well. Democrats will be almost powerless. Mitch McConnell swore this week that the filibuster would remain in place in the Senate, but as he is on his way out as a Senate leader, that will really be up to the next guy to decide. There will be no filibuster on budgetary matters or judge confirmations, and if the filibuster ever gets in the way of Trump and the Republicans doing something they consider a big deal, it will be jettisoned (perhaps just for that issue, or perhaps for everything).

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As the Democratic Party surveys the smoking wreckage of their electoral hopes and dreams, there will no doubt be a movement to figure it all out and try to fix whatever's wrong, in preparation for next time. The pundits are already busy tossing ideas out, and the party bigwigs will probably make some sort of official effort to understand it all at some point.

While Democrats have largely been united -- to a historic degree -- around being anti-Trump for the past eight years or so, the party's various factions have mostly kept from huge public squabbles with each other. That was an enormous change from the way the party had previously operated. Nancy Pelosi deserves a lot of credit for this, in fact, since nobody herds Congressional Democratic cats like she can. But it was also mostly just putting up a united face against Trump and Trumpism that brought Democrats together. This will undoubtedly also hold them together in Congress for Trump's second term, but there will be power struggles behind the scenes for what the party's agenda and message should truly be, heading forward.

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As we all contemplate another four years of Donald Trump, the second-guessing and finger-pointing has already begun. Maybe things would have been different if Joe Biden had decided, on his own, to live up to his pledge of being a transitional president by announcing he would not run for a second term. Maybe things would have been different if he had finished his campaign -- he beat Trump once, right? Maybe there should have been a real contest to see which Democrat should run instead of Biden. Maybe Kamala Harris wasn't the best candidate. Maybe Democrats should have gone with a more traditional (White male, in other words) candidate. Maybe she should have picked someone else to be on the ticket with her. There will be plenty of time to anguish over all of these and more (anguish is what Democrats do best, after all).

In the end, though, the American people wanted Trump, so we're all in for another rollercoaster ride for the next four years. Or less -- I find myself wondering how long it will take JD Vance to convince a majority of Trump's cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment, so Vance can take over. Early 2026, perhaps? Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

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And so we wait.

Everything's already been said, we just have to see what our fellow Americans think of it all, at this point.

Because I could think of nothing to write to add to this day, I instead reached back to the best wordsmith of our time and what she had to say after the previous election. What follows is the poem read by Amanda Gorman at the inauguration of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, on January 20th, 2021.

I will add as my only commentary: We're still striving to climb that hill, obviously.

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The final polls are in. The last week of the campaign is over. The only thing left is Election Day and counting up all the votes.

There has been quite a bit of movement in the polling this week, and almost all of it has been good news for Kamala Harris. It's looking like Donald Trump peaked about a week too early, in fact. Harris seems to have created some last-minute momentum, and last-minute momentum can decide close races like this.

This election cycle may, in fact, go down in history as the only one where a candidate sprang his own "October surprise" on himself. A whole lot of undecided voters have been specifically citing Trump's Madison Square Garden rally as the reason they decided to vote for Harris. Trump's hate-fest reminded a lot of voters of the absolute chaos they could expect for four years if he wins, and it has turned them away from Trump. This isn't limited to Puerto Ricans, either (although they could prove to be crucial in Pennsylvania). Trump's closing argument seems to be: "All the craziness, and twice the racism!" and it is motivating voters to choose Harris instead.

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The final week of the 2024 presidential campaign was reduced -- quite literally -- to "trash talk." This is perhaps a fitting end for this contest, one might think.

But among all the frenzy surrounding who called whom "garbage" this week, Vice President Kamala Harris delivered her closing pitch to voters from the same spot Donald Trump incited a mob to go attack the United States Capitol four years ago. From the Ellipse, with the White House in the background, Harris spoke of the differences between her and Trump, and made her closing argument for why Americans should vote for her rather than him.

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I start with an apology: I can't do it. I just can't. Not this year, sorry.

Today is when I traditionally spin scary (and amusing) stories depicting nightmares from the left and right of the political divide, but this year reality is scarier than anything I could come up with. So I am abdicating my duty. I am punting.

I did carve a Jack O'Lantern for Hallowe'en this year, but all I could come up with was a (rather crude) copy of the "scream" emoji, which (of course) evokes Edvard Munch's famous image.

That's how the entire election has felt, at least to me. And I know I'm not the only one who feels this way either.

So my heartfelt apologies for disappointing anyone who was expecting the traditional "spine-tingling tales of terror" this year, but I just couldn't do it.

Reality is too scary, at this point.

Have a happy Hallowe'en anyway, everyone....

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Today seems like a good day to write an optimistic column. I was inspired to do so by reading a different optimistic column, in today's New York Times (to give full credit for my outburst of rosy-tinted cheerfulness). The article, by Jonathan Alter, is titled: "What If Democrats Win The White House And Congress On Tuesday?" It does begin by admitting that this all may be a "pipe dream," but it lays out what Kamala Harris and a Democratic Congress (with control of both houses) might be able to accomplish.

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With one week left until Election Day, a trend seems to have emerged. Unfortunately for Democrats, this trend seems to be favoring Donald Trump, although not in what you'd call an overwhelming way. It may be more the cumulative effect of a number of battleground states just barely edging over to Trump simultaneously. But it is the first trend of any kind in quite a while, so it bears mentioning.

This election may be decided by a last minute movement towards one candidate or the other by those voters still undecided or persuadable. What is odd is that this column examines data from the past week, but the momentum may currently be in the midst of a big shift in the other direction. It all depends on whether the fallout from Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally manifests itself in a real shift in voting or not. Right now -- today -- the energy and momentum seem to be with Kamala Harris, while Trump is playing defense. How much of this is media perception versus actual on-the-ground reality with voters is yet to be seen, however.

It's still a very open race, to put all of this another way. But when you look at the raw numbers from the past week, Trump seems to be enjoying a slight advantage. This is pretty obvious in our first chart.

This chart shows the state-by-state polling added up for both candidates. As always, data is provided by the Electoral-Vote.com site, which tracks current polling in every state. Each state's Electoral College votes are added into the totals for both candidates, to see who has enough states to win.

Donald Trump is represented in red, from the top of the chart downwards. Kamala Harris is in blue, from the bottom up. Whichever color crosses the center 50-percent line should (if all the polling is perfectly accurate) emerge as the winner. The white areas in between show states that are perfectly Tied.

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

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The 2024 presidential campaign has been an unusual one in a number of respects. The candidates from both major political parties got their nominations in rather odd ways, and while the outcome is going to be close, the winner will set some sort of political precedent in modern American politics for the way this campaign has unfolded.

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