In a surprise turn of events, the mayor of New York City will not now go on to run for president. Or maybe that should read: In a surprise turn of events, this time it wasn't the governor of New York caught in a career-ending scandal, but instead just the mayor of New York City.

That's the way I reacted to hearing the breaking news that New York City Mayor Eric Adams had been indicted on five federal charges, including bribery and wire fraud: "Wait... the mayor? Shouldn't that be the governor?!?" I apologize to Governor Kathy Hochul for this knee-jerk reaction, since (as of yet) she has not been implicated in any career-ending scandal. But it should be a forgivable reaction, after reviewing the recent history of both offices.

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Republicans have a problem with women. Their problem is basically that more and more women don't want to vote for them. By increasingly-wide margins, in fact. Some Republicans have now begun to realize this, and they are desperately trying to woo these women back to their side of the aisle. This is not going well, to put it mildly.

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As we near the finish line of the 2024 presidential race, we're going to start doing these columns more frequently. Sooner or later I will have to write one each week for the final sprint, but I'm not committing to that quite yet. In any case, it has been two weeks since our last look the state of the Electoral Math, so let's take a look at what has changed since the big debate.

Since the debate, Kamala Harris has improved her standing in the national polls, to the point where all the aggregators of such polls have her up in the range of two to three points. That's a lead, but not big enough of one for any Democrats to relax. And although Harris did get a very slight bump from the debate, it hasn't really shown up in a big way in the state-level polling -- which is, of course, what really matters.

So without further ado, let's get right to taking an overview of the state-level polling. As always, we use the fantastic Electoral-Vote.com site for all our data. We urge you to check it out to see individual graphs of every state's polling over time, to get a clearer picture of how tight this race truly is.

We begin with our breakdown of Electoral Votes (EV). Red represents Trump's share (measured from the top), Blue represents Harris's share (measured from the bottom), and whichever crosses the midpoint has the advantage. To put it another way, if all the polls are correct and blue is above the green line, Harris will win. If red is below the green line, then Trump will win.

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

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Thanks to the decision of one man, Nebraska will not be making an eleventh-hour change to the way they apportion their Electoral College votes. This is a very obscure sort of thing, but in one particular scenario it could be key to the entire presidential election. This makes the news that one Republican in Nebraska's state government has decided not to go along with the last-minute change rather important.

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Donald Trump (rather infamously) never admits he's wrong. Even on things that are easy to disprove with incontrovertible evidence, Trump will still insist he is right. He will construct an alternate reality inside his own head where he is proven to be right and all those who disagree are proven to be in some giant conspiracy against him, and he will go right on insisting that up is down, or that night is actually day. He never backs down and certainly never apologizes -- no matter how much harm his lies may cause.

When the lie involved is something like: "I drew a new line on the map, so that's where the hurricane was going to head," then there aren't any actual victims (other than, perhaps, the government meteorological scientists who were pressured to lie about reality). But Trump and his new minion JD Vance are propagating a monstrous slur against a group of people that are now definitely at risk. And not only do they refuse to back down from their lie, they are creating new, worse lies and threatening to bring hordes of their followers into the hometown of the scapegoated minorities.

This should be seen as nothing short of reckless endangerment. If any violence erupts in Springfield, Ohio, it will have been the direct result of Trump and Vance spreading lies about the Haitian immigrants who now live there. We wrote earlier this week about how this constitutes "stochastic terrorism," but that was before Trump announced he'd hold a rally in Springfield within the next two weeks. Not content to let things die down, Trump is going to fan the flames and pour gasoline on the fire with absolutely no regard for any possible consequences that could happen as a direct result. Which is a pretty good definition of reckless endangerment.

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CNN just published a bombshell report with details of the online past of the Republican gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina, the current Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. Much of their reporting dealt with Robinson's history on a pornographic site, which is in keeping with previous reports that Robinson was a regular at video porn shops in the town where he lived in the 1990s and 2000s. But what's much more concerning than his apparent sexual tastes and habits is what he had to say on plenty of other subjects. An argument can be made that a person's private sexual habits aren't really germane to their fitness for office, but it's a whole lot harder to say the same thing about someone who openly supports bringing slavery back.

Robinson, who is Black, reportedly referred to himself on the porn site's message board as a "black NAZI!" He expressed hatred for Martin Luther King Junior, saying of the new statue of King in Washington (which was dedicated by President Barack Obama): "Get that f*cking commie bastard off the National Mall." He expressed what might be called racial self-hatred, posting: "I'm not in the KKK. They don't let blacks join. If I was in the KKK I would have called him Martin Lucifer Koon!"

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Sadly, that is not the title of an upcoming episode of The Simpsons. Instead, it is how the citizens of an Ohio town are now feeling, due to the stochastic terrorism coming from the very top of the Republican presidential ticket. People in Springfield are scared because these nationally-known politicians are lying about them, demonizing them, scapegoating them, and dehumanizing them. This is a perfect recipe for some hotheaded deranged individual to commit a random act of violence against them, which is precisely why they are so scared right now.

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In the political debate over abortion, people like Donald Trump (and plenty of others) like to use a dodge, when talking about what they support. They say they are in favor of three exceptions to abortion bans: rape, incest, and "the life of the mother." But what does that last one mean, on a practical basis? It means needless suffering, pain, risk, and in some cases the actual death of the mother -- all because doctors are scared of being thrown in jail for providing necessary medical services on a timely basis. This is beyond tragic and completely unnecessary, and yet it is no mere hypothetical -- it is happening right here in the United States of America in the twenty-first century.

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I should begin by saying I thought about writing about the politically-violent era we now live in, but it was just too depressing a subject for a Monday. So instead, let's take a look at what is going on in Congress.

Congress is back in town, after their obscenely-long summer break, and (as usual) they are facing a big deadline. This is exacerbated by the fact that it is an election year, so all the congresscritters really want to be back in their home states and districts campaigning full-time. So they really want to just pass something and get out of town (again).

However, to achieve this goal would mean reasonable politicians on both sides of the aisle sitting down and hammering out a bill, and then both houses passing it with little or no drama. Since the House of Representatives is run by Republicans, this is currently impossible. It may yet happen, but only after the House GOP puts on yet another Kabuki production of: "Here Is Precisely How Incapable We Are Of Governing." And as we've already seen, this sort of thing can end the political careers of anyone currently in the speaker's chair.

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This week, millions of Americans tuned in to politics only to make an astonishing discovery: Donald Trump is still exactly who he always was! He opens his mouth, and lies and crazy talk pour forth. Same as it ever was... what a surprise!

Now, normal people can be excused for being surprised that Trump is still Trump. Most people have lives to lead and plenty of other things to do, so they simply don't pay much attention to politics. But tens of millions of them made the time this week to tune in to the first debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. And it was like going to a family Thanksgiving dinner and once again having to put up with your crazy uncle -- because you had somehow forgotten just how bad he truly was. And still is.

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