While campaigning, Donald Trump promised the world he would end the war in Ukraine on his first day in office. Sometimes he even one-upped himself, suggesting he could probably end the war before he was even sworn in.

That, of course, didn't happen. Here we are more than 200 days in to Trump's second term, and the war rages on.

Donald Trump likes to see himself as a strongman -- a real "tough guy." But what we've seen is that he is at heart no more than a bully who immediately backs down when confronted with a truly strong opponent. Vladimir Putin is fully aware of this fact. Which all sets the stage for their summit meeting this Friday in Alaska.

Continue Reading »

So apparently Washington D.C. is going to become an armed camp now. Donald Trump has taken control of the District's police force, sent a bunch of federal agents (from the F.B.I., D.E.A., etc.) out onto the streets, and has called up the National Guard, who will doubtlessly soon appear in full battle dress. All to solve a problem Trump is lying about. There really couldn't be a better argument for D.C. statehood, really, because if it were an actual state it would have an actual governor who might object to such tactics (to put it mildly).

This is more of what might be called "performative militarization" of the police, which Trump introduced in Los Angeles (again, to solve a problem Trump was lying about). The big difference here is that there were only a couple of buildings in L.A. that were federal property, so we had the spectacle of 4,000 National Guard soldiers and 700 U.S. Marines guarding a couple of buildings. It was preposterous on the face of it. But all of the District of Columbia is federal property, so Trump doesn't have to be so restrained.

Continue Reading »

[Donald Trump today, while speaking on an unrelated subject:]

You know, I'm going to see Putin. I'm going to Russia on Friday.

[Friday, dateline Alaska. Donald Trump emerges from his meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin and takes the podium:]

I am pleased to announce that President Putin and I have made a deal. Part of it covers Ukraine, which I will get to in a little bit. But here's the big news -- I have agreed to sell back to Russia all of the state of Alaska above the Arctic Circle. Not a lot of people know this, but Russia actually owned all of Alaska a while ago. That's right! The land we're standing on right now was actually part of Russia -- who knew?

Now this may upset some people, but I want them to know this is the right thing to do. It's going to be beautiful. Nobody wanted all that land way up there -- even the waterfront properties were losers, since they were way too cold. So Putin has graciously agreed to take it all off our hands. Oh and for some reason he also wanted the Aleutian Islands so I agreed he could have those, too. This will make maps much easier for American schoolchildren, since they won't have to learn about these little, itty-bitty islands that are much closer to Russia anyway.

Continue Reading »

Two stories dominated the political headlines this week: Texas Democrats fleeing the state to halt the Republican-dominated legislature's efforts to redraw their U.S. House district lines to hand Republicans five more safe seats, and Donald Trump letting incredibly high tariffs begin against over 90 countries worldwide.

We'll get to them in a moment, but what's more interesting is the dog that didn't bark today. Russia was supposed to have a "10-day deadline" to end its invasion of Ukraine, and steep tariffs were supposed to be slapped on them if Vladimir Putin hadn't manage to do so by today. However, nary a headline is talking about the tariffs that were supposed to appear, because once again Putin played Trump like a violin.

Continue Reading »

The world's economy changed today. The United States slapped new tariffs on dozens of countries early this morning, following through on Donald Trump's repeated threats to do so. What this is all going to do to world trade and the American economy is really anyone's guess at this point, but it's definitely going to have some sort of effect. American economic policy has returned to a high-tariff scenario not seen in over 90 years, which adds to the uncertainty about what happens next. Since there is no modern data for where we find ourselves now, nobody really knows what is going to happen. But there are a few things that we can intelligently guess about, the first of which is that prices are going to rise for American consumers on all kinds of goods, some of which will be mild price hikes and some of which will be huge:

Continue Reading »

We are now two days away from Donald Trump's latest arbitrary deadline with Russia's Vladimir Putin. Talks continued today, and seemed (from the little information released) to have at least been somewhat more productive than the last time any talks happened. But it's also highly unlikely that Putin will accept Trump's demand for a permanent ceasefire and a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. The question now is what Putin will actually offer Trump and how Trump will react to it.

One development that seems to have come from the meeting is that both sides are talking about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump, perhaps as early as next week. Is this more of Putin's stalling, or a real indicator that some sort of solution is getting close? It's impossible to say. But it does seem like a good sign, at least.

Continue Reading »

There's a slogan used by those who support redistricting reform that is worth starting with today: "Voters should pick their politicians; the politicians shouldn't be able to pick their voters." But the process of designing districts -- for U.S. House of Representatives seats as well as state legislative seats -- has long been a political process. The word "gerrymandering" was coined to describe a Massachusetts governor (Elbridge Gerry) who, while serving in office in 1812, approved a district so convoluted that a newspaper drew it as a mythical lizard with the name "the gerrymander." The name stuck, which shows you this sort of thing has been going on for over two centuries now.

Usually these battles are fought immediately after the decennial Census, as states have to adjust to a new number of House members (whether fewer or more). But it's not illegal for a state to redistrict mid-decade, which has been happening more and more frequently over the past couple of decades.

Continue Reading »

The entire financial world is holding its breath right now, waiting to see whether they can continue their trust in official U.S. government economic figures or not. Will things like the official unemployment rate and inflation rate become just another casualty in Donald Trump's war on the truth and his war on science, or will the professionals who produce these numbers (as opposed to the agency's leader) continue to do a good and honest job -- even with the threat of being fired now hanging over their heads? That is an unanswered question, but we will begin to see fairly quickly which direction the Bureau of Labor Statistics is going to head.

Over the course of the next month, there are multiple scheduled data releases before the next monthly jobs report comes out (usually on the first Friday after the end of a month, which would make it September 5th). There will be one more big jobs report and two inflation reports released in that time, and you can bet people will be watching closely to see whether they can be trusted or not.

Continue Reading »

Today's job numbers are bad. There's no getting around it. So Donald Trump reacted to this bad news by immediately firing the messenger. Which is really bad. "Banana republic" bad, in fact. We should all expect Trump to name the next head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who will then dutifully report next month that "in August, America added eight million new jobs, thanks to our Dear Leader's brilliance." Because that is obviously what Trump wants to hear, instead of any proof that the fantasy world he inhabits in his head is rosier than the actual reality in which the rest of us live.

Continue Reading »

As we head into the next few years, America will be experiencing more and more 250th anniversaries. Unlike the bicentennial we went through in 1976, these events will apparently be called by a number of different names (take your pick): semiquincentennial, sestercentennial, bisesquicentennial, or just quarter-millennial (I'm sure we'll all settle on one of these, by next July 4th). In any case, and whatever you call it, last Saturday was the 250th birthday of what became today's United States Postal Service.

Continue Reading »