Democrats had a very good night last night. That's even an understatement -- in actual fact, Democrats had a blowout night last night, as they romped home in just about every election everywhere. One year from Donald Trump's electoral victory, the Democratic Party came back strong. What it all means for the future is anyone's guess, but for the first time in an entire year, it's better to be a Democrat than a Republican, looking towards that future.

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Tonight, political wonks will all be waiting to see the results of the off-off-year election come rolling in. There will be big races and small to keep track of, and much will be made of any demographic shifts in voting patterns. But there is also another thing Democrats will be waiting to hear, which is the political future of (as she is called now) Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. The rumor mill is expecting an announcement from Pelosi on whether she will be running for re-election next year to her House seat, or whether she will be retiring from politics and passing the torch to someone younger to take over.

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New York City is in the midst of holding a sort of hybrid election to choose its new mayor. The Democratic primary used "ranked-choice voting" (R.C.V.), while the general election tomorrow will be the traditional "whichever candidate gets the most votes wins" sort of contest. I saw an article today in Salon which contrasted how these two contests played out, which pointed out how the Democratic primary was a less-vicious affair, with candidates not only vying to be the first selection on people's ballots but also the "number two" choice for voters backing other candidates. It posited that the general election would have been a much more civil affair if R.C.V. had been in place, since the same sort of effect might have changed the way the candidates campaigned. The article was probably right to some degree or another, but it missed a rather large point -- one that might be pertinent for Republican voters: if the N.Y.C. mayoral general election had indeed been held under R.C.V. rules, then frontrunner Zohran Mamdani might have wound up losing.

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I must begin with an apology, because once again I find that I cannot bring myself to write a new Hallowe'en column this year.

Usually, at this time of year, I try to come up with frightful tales of horror for both the left and right sides of the political divide -- which I attempt to make both humorous and also so far-fetched that they're ridiculously unbelievable. The "scare factor" is tempered by the "Oh, that could never actually happen" factor, to put it another way.

These are indeed scary times we live in. And it would be impossible for me to try to construct a nightmarish scenario for those on the left that is any more frightful than what we are living through now.

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Next Tuesday is Election Day. No matter what happens in this off-off-year election, this will produce a flurry of speculation about the current state of the political landscape in America, and what it will all mean for the election that is going to happen next year, when all of the House and one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot. As usual, though, drawing sweeping conclusions this far out is likely to prove laughably mistaken, since a year's time in a normal political atmosphere is still an eternity, and an entire year in the Trump era feels like an even longer time than that.

Nevertheless, pundits gotta pundit, so I thought I would weigh in with a few thoughts on the four key races that will be decided next Tuesday. These are: the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia, the mayoral race in New York City, and the Proposition 50 race in California. While various other candidates and propositions will be on ballots next Tuesday, these four will provide most of the grist for the punditocracy's mill.

Only one of these races is likely to even be close. Democrats seem poised to easily romp home in the other three. But this may set up a conflicting narrative, because of the political leanings of the candidates.

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For the second month in a row, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates. This move was expected, but the Fed chair is now warning that there might not be a third drop when they meet again in December. A big part of his hesitancy stems from the fact that the Fed is now essentially flying blind, because the government shutdown has caused the flow of economic data to halt. Jerome Powell used a different transportation-based metaphor to describe this, saying: "If there is a high level of uncertainty, then that could be an argument in favor of caution about moving.... What do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down. I'm not committing to that. I'm just saying it's certainly a possibility that you would say, 'We really can't see. So let's slow down.'"

The government shut down at the beginning of October. This meant that the jobs report for September was not published. Worse, it also means that new data has not been collected all month long, which may make it impossible to even calculate the jobs numbers for this month. If the shutdown persists into November, it could be early January before these numbers start flowing once again. That's a big gap, obviously. And it's not just the jobs numbers -- the inflation rate is also put out by the same agency:

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Donald Trump has never cared all that much what the U.S. Constitution actually says. He certainly has never read the whole thing -- he makes this painfully obvious whenever he attempts to talk about it in any detail. And he has been actively trying to dismantle parts of it already. So it's no real surprise that he has trolled everyone again by flirting with the notion of possibly running (or otherwise somehow becoming) president for a third time, using the 2028 election to achieve this goal.

The typical reaction to this, of course, is to think that he can't possibly do so, because after F.D.R. died an amendment was passed which limits presidents to only serving two terms in office. Unfortunately, however, this isn't exactly what the Twenty-Second Amendment actually says. Here is the pertinent text:

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At the end of this week, the federal government will have been shut down for a full month. As things stand currently, few people expect anything to change before then. No viable exit ramp has appeared yet, and none is likely to do so until Donald Trump returns from his foreign trip. This will push the shutdown into November, which will dramatically increase the pressure to come to some sort of agreement, because while some money has been shuffled around to keep certain things funded (like military salaries), it's going to get substantially harder to do so in November. This means many programs are just going to completely grind to a halt, which is going to mean more and more of the public becomes directly affected by the shutdown.

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So, let's review, shall we? Last weekend, seven million Americans took to the streets to protest Donald Trump, in the biggest political protest this country has ever seen. The theme of the protest was: "No Kings!" So this week, Trump responded by acting in what can only be described as kingly fashion, in as many ways as he could dream up -- including a rushed demolition of one-third of the White House, without consulting anyone or even attempting to get anyone's permission. He sent the demolition crews in, and within a few days the entire East Wing was nothing more than a pile of rubble. All because a royal decree had been issued.

Trump also demanded $230 million in personal tribute money, to be paid to him by the Department of Justice, using (of course) taxpayer dollars. The reason the public should hand him almost a quarter-billion dollars? Because his feelings were hurt when the justice system tried to hold him accountable for his many crimes. So now, according to the king, the public must pay fealty to him in a very tangible way.

Meanwhile, a U.S. aircraft carrier is heading to the Caribbean, so that Trump can kill whomever he wishes with more ease. Think that's an overstatement? Think only a king would do something like that? Here is Trump, after being asked whether he was going to ask Congress to approve of such actions: "I think we're just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country, OK? We're going to kill them, you know? They're going to be like, dead."

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Finally -- after way too long spent grovelling on the world stage -- Donald Trump didn't chicken out. For the first time in the nine months he has been in office, Trump actually moved to punish Russia. Hopefully, this represents a shift in his thinking that will be hard for him to easily reverse. Because for the first time, Trump is no longer acting like Vladimir Putin's lapdog.

Trump just announced sanctions on two of Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This will prevent them from access to Western banking systems, and the sanctions theoretically will extend to anyone doing business with them anywhere in the world. Such sanctions are not a new thing -- Joe Biden, on his way out of office in January, slapped sanctions on two other large Russian oil companies (Surgutneftegaz and Gazpromneft). So Trump's move is really an expansion of the previous strategy of sanctioning the Russian oil industry.

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