America heads into this year's holiday season with a cheerful discussion of whether or not we've committed war crimes. Just another random week in the Donald Trump era, folks! Sorry for being snide, but it's hard to juxtapose the whole "peace on Earth" holiday sentiment with the revelations coming from Washington this week.

America is supposed to be above committing war crimes, of course. We're theoretically supposed to be better than that. In fact, here are a few pertinent quotes about that very subject:

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This article should really be seen as a continuation to yesterday's article, since all it does is add some specifics to the generalized observations I made yesterday. Because both sides in Congress have made some tangible moves in the debate over extending the Obamacare subsidies (which are set to expire on the first of the year). Senate Democrats have presented their plan, which will get a guaranteed floor vote next week, while a centrist group in the House (with enough Republicans to pass a bill if all Democrats supported it) has come up with their own plan. Meanwhile, Republicans in both the House and the Senate are still dithering about what party-line plan they might put forward. So let's run these down, one by one.

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December is going to be a busy month in the political world. The due date to release the Epstein files falls on the 19th. New official figures -- the first in months -- on the economy (jobs and inflation) will be released two weeks from now. But the biggest story all month is going to be whether Congress is going to extend the Obamacare subsidies or not. Right now, it's not looking especially good, but things can change quickly.

A vote is supposed to be held in the Senate next week on a bill of the Democrats' choosing to extend the subsidies. That was the promise given by Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune to end the government shutdown. But so far, it's not looking like enough Republicans will get on board with a simple extension (even one with a few GOP priorities included). Democrats are pretty united on the issue, but Republicans are all over the map. And both sides seem pretty pessimistic about some sort of compromise emerging:

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Today, all eyes in the political world are turning to Tennessee. There's a special election for an open House seat happening today, and it could send shockwaves through Washington no matter who wins the race. If the Democratic candidate wins, it is going to boost Democratic hopes of a "blue wave" election in next year's midterms in a big way, while simultaneously causing deep fear within the Republican Party. If the Republican wins with a small margin of victory, the same thing is going to happen (but in a more subdued way). The only way the election results aren't going to cause a shockwave is if the GOP candidate scores a sweeping victory with at least a double-digit margin.

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The United States of America is once again committing war crimes. In fact, the recent revelation in the Washington Post that there were two survivors of one of the military's missile attacks on small boats, and that a second missile was launched specifically to kill the survivors, was literally a textbook example of a war crime. The entire operation -- killing people who are in international waters who are not at war with the U.S. -- is probably a war crime as well, but with this particular example there is absolutely no doubt. But I for one am not going to hold my breath waiting for any of the people involved to be held to any sort of account for their actions.

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If there's one thing I will be thankful for this year, it is the fact that Republicans are increasingly "in disarray." More and more, the various factions within the party are at each other's throats, which should just prove to make it that much easier for Democrats to wrest back control in next year's midterm elections. For which I am thankful.

There has been much speculation about why all of these rifts (which are beginning to show with more frequency) are happening now, because (especially after the 2025 elections) Republicans are beginning to wake up and realize that in three years, Donald Trump will be gone -- but they still want to be around. Personally, I'm not entirely sure that the GOP is really envisioning the post-Trump era quite yet, but for whatever reason, the cracks seem to be getting wider by the day.

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There's an old saying that "nothing gets done until the last minute," which is particularly apt when talking about Congress legislating. We are not actually at the last minute yet for extending the Obamacare health insurance premium subsidies, but we're getting really close. Congress will return from its Thanksgiving holiday and have a few weeks before its year-end holiday, which gives it a window to act before the January 1st deadline. Whether it will successfully act or not is still (as always) an open question.

To end the government shutdown, the Democrats who crossed the aisle got a verbal agreement from Senate Majority Leader John Thune that he would allow a vote in December on a bill to extend the subsidies. That vote was to be on a bill of the Democrats' choosing, which could become a crucial distinction. Speaker Mike Johnson hasn't agreed to hold any vote on any bill in the House, but if the Senate acts it's hard to see Johnson not at least allowing a vote on whatever bill they pass. So there is a path to success, but one with a very short timeline.

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It seems that James Carville has seen the light, and as a result he's now channelling his inner Bernie Sanders. In an opinion piece in today's New York Times, Carville calls on Democrats to focus on what he calls "good old-fashioned economic populism, both in message and measure." In some ways, this is Carville circling back to an earlier time for him, since he was the one who came up with the slogan: "It's the economy, stupid" during Bill Clinton's first successful presidential campaign. You might call it Carville's "It's still the economy, stupid" moment.

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The political term for physically-challenged waterfowl has been appearing with increasing regularity in the media this week, to describe the president. But is Donald Trump really a "lame duck" yet? Or is he more of a duck that happened to sprain an ankle or perhaps stub a toe (do ducks technically have ankles... or toes? I must admit, I have no idea...)?

Etymological/metaphorical/biological amusements aside, though, the question is a bigger one than pinning down the exact nature of this particular waterfowl's infirmity. Because the articles using the term are really asking whether Trump's iron-fisted grip on the Republican Party (and/or his MAGA supporters) is slipping -- and if so, by how much. Here's just one example of the question being discussed:

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Larry Summers has now become the first prominent American to be publicly disgraced for his association with Jeffrey Epstein, but he certainly won't be the last. Since the release of emails between Summers and Epstein, Summers has swiftly been disappearing from public life. He has either resigned or been kicked off many lucrative positions he held with various companies and other institutions, and he has now had to step back from his teaching position at Harvard University (after an attempt to cling to the job by admitting his shame to his students didn't go over very well). My guess is he won't be appearing on many news programs as an expert economist anymore either. But again, the fall of Summers is just the first in what will likely be a series of people who will be ostracized and shunned in public life. Because he certainly wasn't the only friend of Epstein who is in a prominent public position (and therefore has a lot to lose). [I should add, for the record, that former-Prince Andrew has also paid a steep price for what was recently revealed, but the woes of British royalty don't really interest me that much, so I consider him more of a footnote to the story here in America.]

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